摩根士丹利：半导体生产设备-行业展望

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for Semiconductor Production Equipment is Attractive [2]. Core Insights - The semiconductor manufacturing equipment market is expected to experience growth driven by advancements in generative AI and increased demand for high-performance computing [117]. - The report highlights a shift in capital expenditure trends, with significant investments anticipated in both front-end and back-end processes, particularly in response to evolving technology needs [117]. - The report notes that while there are uncertainties regarding US tariffs and restrictions on China, the overall growth potential of the semiconductor manufacturing equipment market remains strong [117]. Market Environment - The semiconductor production equipment market is projected to see low-single digit negative growth in 2025, influenced by various factors including demand fluctuations in China and global market dynamics [19][22]. - The report indicates that sales of wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) to China are expected to slow down, with significant implications for the market outlook [22]. - The demand for advanced packaging technologies, such as CoWoS, is increasing, driven by the need for high-performance computing solutions [38]. Capital Expenditure Trends - Capital expenditure (capex) for DRAM is expected to decrease in China while increasing outside of China, with NAND investments rebounding [17]. - The report anticipates that capex directed at HBM4 will ramp up fully from the second half of 2025, reflecting the growing demand for high-bandwidth memory in AI applications [36]. - The CHIPS Act is expected to significantly impact the back-end equipment market, with substantial subsidies allocated to enhance domestic semiconductor manufacturing capabilities [39][40]. Technological Advancements - The concept of chipletization is highlighted as a key trend, offering advantages such as reduced chip area and improved yields, which are critical for enhancing semiconductor performance [15]. - The report discusses the emergence of new technologies, including glass substrates and photoelectric fusion, which are expected to drive innovation in semiconductor manufacturing [36]. - The introduction of advanced packaging methods, such as Panel Level Packaging (PLP), is noted for its potential to improve manufacturing efficiency and output [99].