摩根士丹利：美国政策年中展望-年末前政策路径展望

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it indicates a constructive outlook for US equities with a 12-month forward price target of 6500 [8]. Core Insights - The US policy path is expected to lead to higher tariffs, particularly skewed towards China, with a 10% blanket tariff in place. This situation is anticipated to persist into 2026 [6][9]. - Fiscal policy changes are projected to result in a modest incremental deficit of approximately $130 billion excluding tariff revenue, reflecting about 7.1% of GDP [6][17]. - Immigration policy is expected to maintain a largely unchanged picture, with border crossings and deportations both lower than prior estimates [6][27]. - Deregulation is progressing slowly, with more sectoral impacts rather than macroeconomic effects, although potential macro impacts in the financial sector are anticipated [6][33]. Summary by Sections Tariffs - US tariffs are expected to ramp up in 2025, skewed towards China, with a 10% baseline for most trading partners and higher tariffs on China at around 30% [6][9]. - The report anticipates uneven tariff implementation, with higher escalation risks on Europe but maintaining a 10% tariff level [9][10]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal base case includes an extension of the expiring Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) with some additional tax cuts, leading to an expected deficit increase of approximately $310 billion in 2026, or about 7.1% of GDP [17][18]. - The report outlines various scenarios for the deficit, with a high deficit case projecting a $400 billion increase, while a lower deficit case suggests a $70 billion savings [23][26]. Immigration - Border encounters have dropped by approximately 90% since the administration took office, with deportations also falling short of goals, leading to a tight labor market outlook [27][32]. Deregulation - Deregulation efforts are described as slow-moving, with more sectoral impacts expected, particularly in the financial sector, where regulatory changes could support bank activity [33][34].