2025-05-22 05:50Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" (OW) rating to Chow Tai Fook (CTF), an "Equal Weight" (EW) rating to Laopu Gold, and an "Underweight" (UW) rating to both Lao Feng Xiang (LFX) and Chow Tai Seng (CTS) [8][11]. Core Insights - A milder rise in gold prices is expected to support a recovery in gold jewelry demand, particularly for weight-based gold jewelry products, which constitute over 70% of the gold jewelry market. There is an anticipated return of pent-up demand due to a recent decline in gold prices, which fell by 10% from its peak in late April [3][4]. - CTF is projected to benefit the most due to its high exposure to weight-based gold products (over 50%) and a higher proportion of self-operated stores (approximately 30% of sales). The company is seen as having better flexibility in switching between weight-based and fixed-price strategies [4][11]. - Laopu is expected to see solid demand growth, although the growth momentum may moderate due to stabilization in gold prices and a higher year-over-year comparison base. The brand is still in the early stages of consumer penetration, and demand for high-end heritage gold products is structural [5][11]. Summary by Company Chow Tai Fook (CTF) - Price target raised from HK$10.5 to HK$13, with an increase in target PE from 14x to 16x, reflecting the stock's average since 2016. The bull and bear case prices have also been adjusted to HK$17 and HK$7, respectively [6][32]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-27 have been slightly cut by 2-3% due to macroeconomic uncertainties, while earnings for 2025 are reduced by 4% but increased for 2026 and 2027 by 3% and 0%, respectively, due to better margin outlook [31][32]. Laopu Gold - Price target lowered from HK$980 to HK$865, with a decrease in target PE from 37x to 33x, reflecting a normalization in growth outlook and recent equity fundraising. The bull and bear case prices are now HK$1345 and HK$395, respectively [6][34]. - Revenue estimates for 2025-27 have been slightly adjusted, with a projected revenue of Rmb23,118 million for 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 171.8% [34]. Lao Feng Xiang (LFX) - Price target reduced from Rmb45 to Rmb36, with revenue forecasts for 2025-27 cut by 20-25% and earnings forecasts by 16%, due to severe revenue declines and store closures [6][35]. Chow Tai Seng (CTS) - Price target lowered from Rmb9.5 to Rmb9, with revenue forecasts for 2025-27 cut by 21% and earnings forecasts by 14-25%, reflecting a more severe decline than previously anticipated [6][35].