瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250522

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Industry Daily Report [1] - Date: May 22, 2025 [1] - Writer: Wang Fuhui [2] - Qualification Number: F03123381 [2] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0019878 [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - Main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 62,140.00, up 1,040.00 [2] - Net position of the top 20 (daily, lots): -40,069.00, down 754.00 [2] - Main contract open interest (daily, lots): 312,662.00, down 16,543.00 [2] - Spread between near and far contracts (daily, yuan/ton): -1,160.00, up 20.00 [2] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts (daily, lots/ton): 36,393.00, down 152.00 [2] Spot Market - Average price of battery-grade carbonate lithium (daily, yuan/ton): 63,050.00, unchanged [2] - Average price of industrial-grade carbonate lithium (daily, yuan/ton): 61,450.00, unchanged [2] - Basis of Li₂CO₃ main contract (daily, yuan/ton): 910.00, down 1,040.00 [2] Upstream Situation - Average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) (daily, US dollars/ton): 745.00, down 4.00 [2] - Average price of amblygonite (daily, yuan/ton): 7,050.00, unchanged [2] - Average price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%, daily, yuan/ton): 1,720.00, down 40.00 [2] Industry Situation - Carbonate lithium production (monthly, tons): 47,900.00, up 4,720.00 [2] - Carbonate lithium imports (monthly, tons): 28,335.89, up 10,210.40 [2] - Carbonate lithium exports (monthly, tons): 734.29, up 514.26 [2] - Carbonate lithium enterprise operating rate (monthly, %): 53.00, up 3.00 [2] - Power battery production (monthly, MWh): 118,200.00, down 100.00 [2] - Manganese lithium oxide (daily, yuan/ton): 29,000.00, unchanged [2] - Lithium hexafluorophosphate (daily, ten thousand yuan/ton): 5.40, down 0.10 [2] - Cobalt lithium oxide (daily, yuan/ton): 220,000.00, unchanged [2] - Ternary material (811 type): China (daily, yuan/ton): 147,500.00, unchanged [2] - Ternary material (622 power type): China (daily, yuan/ton): 125,000.00, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application Situation - Ternary material (523 single crystal type): China (daily, yuan/ton): 129,500.00, unchanged [2] - Ternary cathode material operating rate (monthly, %): 53.00, up 5.00 [2] - Lithium iron phosphate (daily, ten thousand yuan/ton): 3.15, unchanged [2] - Lithium iron phosphate cathode operating rate (monthly, %): 47.00, down 10.00 [2] - New energy vehicle: monthly production (CAAM, units): 1,251,000.00, down 26,000.00 [2] - New energy vehicle: monthly sales (CAAM, units): 1,226,000.00, down 11,000.00 [2] - New energy vehicle cumulative sales penetration rate (CAAM, %): 42.74, up 1.58 [2] - New energy vehicle: cumulative sales and year-on-year (units): 4,300,000.00, up 1,360,000.00 [2] - New energy vehicle: monthly exports (ten thousand units): 20.00, up 4.20 [2] - New energy vehicle: cumulative exports and year-on-year (ten thousand units): 64.20, up 22.10 [2] - 20-day average volatility of the underlying asset (%): 25.27, up 1.10 [2] - 40-day average volatility of the underlying asset (%): 20.54, up 0.69 [2] Option Situation - Total call open interest (lots): 184,982.00, up 13,621 [2] - Total put open interest (lots): 67,257.00, up 3,272 [2] - Total open interest put-call ratio (%): 36.36, down 0.9806 [2] - At-the-money IV implied volatility (%): 0.28, down 0.0076 [2] Group 3: Industry News - Ideal Auto has adjusted its annual production target for this year to 640,000 vehicles, including 520,000 for the extended-range L series and 120,000 for the pure-electric series including MEGA [2] - The General Office of the Shanghai Municipal People's Government has issued the "Shanghai Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption", which includes measures to expand the implementation of consumer goods trade-in programs, promote automobile consumption, and implement subsidy policies for home appliance trade-in [2] - XPeng Motors released its financial report, with total revenue in the first quarter of 15.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.5%; adjusted net loss of 430 million yuan, a year-on-year narrowing of 69.5%; gross profit margin reaching a new high of 15.6%. The company expects to deliver 102,000 - 108,000 vehicles in the second quarter and achieve profitability in the fourth quarter [2] - TrendForce: The total sales of new energy vehicles including pure-electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the first quarter reached 4.02 million, a year-on-year increase of 39%, and new energy vehicles accounted for 18.4% of global automobile sales in the first quarter [2] Group 4: Core Viewpoints - The main contract of carbonate lithium fluctuated strongly, with open interest decreasing month-on-month, spot premium, and basis weakening [2] - The fundamentals of carbonate lithium remain in a situation of oversupply, with high industrial inventory [2] - In the option market, the call open interest dominates, and the market sentiment is bullish, with implied volatility slightly decreasing [2] - Technically, the 60-minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 axis, and the red bars are expanding [2] - The operation suggestion is to conduct light-position oscillating trading and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2]