瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250522

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - As the flood season approaches in Yunnan, Sichuan and other places, the electricity price cost advantage emerges, stimulating the resumption of production of local industrial silicon enterprises to accelerate [2]. - The downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in the fields of organic silicon, polysilicon and aluminum alloy. The total demand for industrial silicon from the three downstream industries shows a downward trend, making it difficult to strongly drive the market [2]. - The large number of warehouse receipts brings huge delivery pressure to the market, severely suppressing price increases. Overall, supply is low, demand is decreasing, and inventory remains high. It is recommended to adopt a high - short strategy in the medium - to - long term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 7,880 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 183,690 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 9,112 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 is - 30,513 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,233 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 65,298 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 355 lots [2]. - The price difference between the July - August contracts is - 25 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of the Si main contract is 770 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the spot price of DMC is 11,680 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,930 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, all with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 46,400 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 599,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 39,200 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 20,500 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [2]. - The overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, and the weekly average spot price is 4.3 US dollars/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 US dollars/kg [2]. - The monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy is 18,176.9 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 691.08 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 59.57%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.48% [2]. - The monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.655 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 103,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - A notice was issued for the preferred investment and development entities of the second and third batches of new energy projects in Guangnan County, Yunnan Province in 2024. The second batch includes 4 centralized photovoltaic power generation projects with a total installed capacity of 310,000 kilowatts [2]. - The state is increasing investment to support long - term data infrastructure construction [2]