瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250522

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the output of domestic methanol production capacity affected by maintenance and production cuts is more than that of the restored capacity, leading to a slight decrease in overall production [2]. - This week, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm declined, the actual order volume decreased, the enterprise's pending orders decreased, and the inventory of inland enterprises continued to increase slightly [2]. - This week, the methanol port inventory increased slightly. In the East China region, the downstream load along the Yangtze River recovered, and the提货 volume of other mainstream social warehouses was normal. In the South China region, the提货 volume of the mainstream storage areas was good due to the stable local and surrounding demand, while both imported and domestic trade supplies were supplemented, resulting in an increase in inventory [2]. - In terms of demand, the restart of the olefin maintenance device in East China led to an increase in the operating rate of the methanol - to - olefin industry this week. The MA2509 contract fluctuates in the range of 2220 - 2290 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2241 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread of methanol was - 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton [2]. - The main contract's open interest of methanol was 773,662 lots, an increase of 22,183 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 167,676 lots [2]. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts was 7,357, a decrease of 2,033 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The price in Inner Mongolia was 2,030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was 59 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 261 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton. The CFR price in Southeast Asia was 332 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 244 euros/ton, an increase of 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 71 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.36 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.25 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 32.70 tons, an increase of 0.30 tons. The inventory in South China ports was 16.34 tons, an increase of 0.35 tons [2]. - The import profit of methanol was 42.82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.65 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 47.30 tons, a decrease of 8.88 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 235,200 tons, a decrease of 38,400 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises was 88.47%, a decrease of 3.7% [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 50.87%, an increase of 0.33%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was 8.97%, unchanged [2]. - The operating rate of acetic acid was 89.71%, an increase of 2.13%. The operating rate of MTBE was 56.09%, a decrease of 5.28% [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The operating rate of olefins was 83.29%, an increase of 0.74%. The on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 522 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 21.74%, an increase of 0.43%. The 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 24.41%, an increase of 0.16% [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option of methanol was 17.06%, a decrease of 2.13%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money put option of methanol was 17.06%, a decrease of 2.12% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of May 21, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 49.24 tons, an increase of 0.85 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 0.50 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 0.35 tons [2]. - As of May 21, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 33.60 tons, an increase of 0.02 tons compared with the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 0.07%. The pending orders of sample enterprises were 3.52 tons, a decrease of 3.84 tons compared with the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 14.03% [2]. - As of May 22, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 83.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.53%. The restart of the olefin maintenance device in East China led to an increase in the industry's operating rate [2]. 3.8 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the inventory of Longzhong enterprises and ports on Wednesday [2]