油脂油料产业日报-20250522

Report Information - Report Date: May 21, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220), Reviewed by Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Core Views Fats and Oils - Palm Oil: Production in the producing regions is expected to increase month-on-month, and the approaching seasonal production increase adds to the supply expectation. Although the domestic port inventory is currently at a low level, as the origin's quotes weaken, subsequent purchases are gradually emerging. On the consumption side, due to the current inverted soybean-palm oil price difference, there is no incremental consumption, and the inventory is expected to increase and needs to continue to shrink the soybean-palm oil price difference to find consumption [3] - Soybean Oil: On the supply side, as the purchased ships arrive at the port, the pressure is approaching, and the expected oil mill crushing is also rising. However, on the consumption side, due to the lack of incremental consumption to absorb the supply, the inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle. In the future, under the expectation of a double increase in the supply of palm oil and soybean oil, the soybean-palm oil price difference may be repaired in the far month to compete for market share in the consumer market [3] - Rapeseed Oil: Recently, due to the expected improvement in China-Canada relations, the premium of the market's policy expectation trading has been hit. On the actual supply side, as the previously purchased rapeseed has now arrived at the port, the coastal rapeseed inventory is gradually decreasing. The current supply of rapeseed oil is at a phased peak, and the expected marginal depletion rate is expected to accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. On the consumption side, due to the policy premium of rapeseed oil, the rapeseed-soybean oil price difference has always been in a range unfavorable for rapeseed oil consumption, suppressing consumption. The consumption of rapeseed oil also remains at the level of rigid demand. Currently, there is high inventory pressure, but the policy uncertainty provides a bottom support for the far month [3] Oilseeds - Imported Soybeans: In terms of purchases, the US soybean futures price has weakened, and the Brazilian premium has been repaired upwards. However, recently, the sales progress of Argentine soybeans has accelerated, and the quotes have decreased, limiting the upward space of the Brazilian premium. The near-month crushing profit still exists, but the far-month crushing profit has turned negative. It is expected that it will be difficult to achieve higher crushing profits under the current sales rhythm in Brazil. In terms of arrivals, the expected arrivals in May are 1.3 billion tons, 1.15 billion tons in June, and 1.15 billion tons in July. Overall, the near-month supply is still relatively abundant, but there is still a gap in purchases for the far-month fourth quarter [15] - Domestic Soybean Meal: The actual pressure continues to suppress the price of soybean meal. In North China, it is difficult to support the stability of the spot price, and in East China, the high inventory of soybean meal continues to suppress the basis quotation. In the second quarter, the basis is expected to continue to be weak. Currently, although the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is at a low level in recent years, the expected increase in soybean arrivals will lead to a continuous increase in the soybean inventory of oil mills. With the expectation of a recovery in the operating rate, it is difficult for the soybean meal price to achieve effective spot-futures linkage and rise. From the demand side, in the short term, downstream enterprises will continue to fulfill their previous delivery contracts and mainly replenish their physical inventories, and will remain cautious about purchasing far-month contracts [15] - Rapeseed Meal: The customs clearance issue in the East China region affects the supply of regional oil mills, but the actual inventory pressure is still relatively high, and the inventory depletion rate of rapeseed meal is slow. The monthly average import volume of rapeseed ships in the future is about 200,000 tons, but the overall market is cautious about imported rapeseed after June 10. Coupled with the uncertainty of the subsequent China-Canada rapeseed tariff, the far-month supply is highly uncertain [15] Summary by Category Fats and Oils - Price and Spread Information: The price and spread data of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are provided, including the price difference between different contract months and different varieties [4][7][12] - Market Conditions: The current market conditions of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are analyzed, including production, supply, consumption, and inventory [3] Oilseeds - Price Information: The futures prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are provided, including the closing price, daily change, and change rate [16][18] - Market Conditions: The market conditions of imported soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are analyzed, including purchases, arrivals, supply, demand, and inventory [15]