大越期货原油早报-20250523

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Overnight news that OPEC+ is considering another increase in production in July hit oil prices hard. Although the G7 is considering lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil, which partially boosted the market, the US has not supported the resolution. Geopolitically, a new round of US-Iran talks is expected to take place today, and the hope of reaching an agreement is slim due to the previous tense relations caused by Israel's planned attack. There is continuous geopolitical support below, and oil prices are expected to oscillate at low levels in the short term, waiting for more news. Short-term oil prices are expected to trade in the range of 450 - 460, and long-term long positions can be held lightly [3]. Summary by Catalog 1. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: G7 finance ministers and central bank governors are discussing lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil exports to $50 per barrel. OPEC+ members are discussing whether to agree on another large-scale production increase at the June 1 meeting, with a possible 411,000 barrels per day increase in July production, but no final agreement has been reached [3]. - Basis: On May 21, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $63.75 per barrel, and the spot price of Qatar Marine crude oil was $63.67 per barrel, with a basis of 19.16 yuan per barrel, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3]. - Inventory: US API crude oil inventories for the week ending May 16 increased by 2.499 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.449 million barrels. US EIA inventories for the week ending May 16 increased by 1.328 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.277 million barrels. Cushing region inventories decreased by 457,000 barrels for the week ending May 16, compared with a previous decrease of 1.069 million barrels. As of May 21, Shanghai crude oil futures inventories remained unchanged at 4.029 million barrels [3]. - Disk: The 20-day moving average is flat, and the price is below the moving average [3]. - Main Positions: As of May 13, the main positions in WTI and Brent crude oil were long positions, and the number of long positions increased [3]. - Expectation: Short-term oil prices are expected to oscillate at low levels, trading in the range of 450 - 460, and long-term long positions can be held lightly [3]. 2. Recent News - Iran warns that if Israel attacks its nuclear energy facilities, it will hold the US responsible, and any such attack will destroy Iran's efforts to restart relations with Washington. Iran and the US are preparing for the fifth round of nuclear talks in Rome on Friday [5]. - G7 finance ministers and central bank governors are discussing lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil exports to $50 per barrel, but the US has not supported the resolution [3][5]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: No information provided - Bearish Factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and OPEC+ may increase production ahead of schedule. The market is driven by the resonance of damaged demand due to US policies and possible rapid production increases on the supply side. Risk points include the breakdown of unity within OPEC+ and the escalation of war risks. The US threatens to impose sanctions on Iran, and Venezuelan crude oil also faces sanctions risks. There are signs of a certain easing in the trade war [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil decreased by -0.72%, -0.60%, -1.22%, and -1.55% respectively [7]. - Spot Market: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil decreased by -1.01%, -0.60%, -3.69%, -2.94%, and -3.50% respectively [9]. - Inventory Data: API inventories for the week ending May 16 increased by 2.499 million barrels, and EIA inventories for the week ending May 16 increased by 1.328 million barrels [3][10][13]. 5. Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of May 13, the net long position was 185,301, an increase of 9,873 [16]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of May 13, the net long position was 151,144, an increase of 53,586 [19].