大越期货菜粕早报-20250523

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2540 - 2600. The market is influenced by factors such as the low - level operation of rapeseed meal oil mills, low inventory, short - term recovery of spot demand, increased imports of rapeseed, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. In the short term, the price will return to range - bound trading [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in a 2540 - 2600 range - bound oscillation. The market is affected by the trend of soybean meal, low - level operation of oil mills, low inventory, short - term recovery of demand, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The neutral market situation is also affected by factors like the basis, inventory, price position on the moving average, and changes in the main positions [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight spot market supply and rising demand. Canadian rapeseed annual production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other, there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors include China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes and the low inventory pressure of oil mills. Bearish factors are the increase in imported rapeseed arrivals after March and the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, as well as the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From May 13th to May 22nd, the average transaction price of soybean meal decreased from 3169 to 3000, and the average transaction price of rapeseed meal increased from 2420 to 2500. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased from 749 to 500. The rapeseed meal futures price (主力2509) fluctuated between 2487 - 2562, and the spot price increased from 2420 to 2500. The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 31218 on May 12th to 28877 on May 22nd [13][14][16]. - The domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance shows changes in harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2014 - 2023. The domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance also shows corresponding changes from 2014 - 2023 [24][25]. - The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in May was lower than expected, and the import cost was in a strong - side oscillation. The oil mill's rapeseed inventory continued to decline, while the rapeseed meal inventory increased from a low level. The oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume rebounded to a relatively high level. Aquatic fish prices increased slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [26][28][30]. 3.5 Position Data - No relevant content provided 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate between 2540 - 2600. The market is influenced by the low - level operation of oil mills, low inventory, short - term recovery of demand, increased imports of rapeseed, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The basis is at a discount, the inventory has decreased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the main long positions have increased, and the funds have flowed out. In the short term, due to the low - level inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, the price first rose and then fell, and then returned to range - bound trading under the influence of soybean meal [9].