大越期货燃料油早报-20250523

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - Overnight news of OPEC's potential production increase in July hit oil prices, causing fuel oil to decline. G7's consideration of lowering the export price cap for Russian energy products provided some support, stabilizing prices. In the short - term, fuel oil is expected to oscillate at low levels, waiting for news. FU2507 is expected to trade in the 2980 - 3030 range, and LU2507 in the 3470 - 3520 range [3] - The market structure of Asian high - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened due to strong seasonal demand for utility power generation. However, increased supply in some regions and more shipments of Dar mixed crude from South Sudan have added to the low - sulfur fuel oil blending raw material pool, pressuring the low - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals [3] - The行情 is driven by the combination of uncertain supply - side production cuts and neutral demand [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The current situation of fuel oil: The market is affected by OPEC's production increase news and G7's price - cap consideration. The expected price ranges for FU2507 and LU2507 are given. The fundamentals show a mixed picture, with high - sulfur fuel oil supported by demand and low - sulfur fuel oil facing pressure. The basis indicates a spot premium over futures, inventory increased in the Singapore region, and the price is above the 20 - day line with different trends in high - and low - sulfur fuel oil's main positions [3] - Futures and spot price changes: The prices of FU and LU's main contracts, as well as the basis, have changed to varying degrees. The spot prices of different types of fuel oil in different regions have also increased [5][6] 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Bullish factors: OPEC+ continues additional production cuts (execution to be tracked), and China has issued import quotas [4] - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxed sanctions on Russia [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - Fundamentals: Asian high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by seasonal demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure from increased supply and raw material availability [3] - Basis: The basis for Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 204 yuan/ton, and for low - sulfur fuel oil is 229 yuan/ton, indicating a spot premium over futures [3] - Main positions: High - sulfur fuel oil's main position is long, with a decrease in long positions; low - sulfur fuel oil's main position is short, with an increase in short positions [3] 3.4 Spread Data - No specific data analysis is provided in the given content, only a chart of the high - and low - sulfur futures spread is shown [13] 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on May 14 was 2490.9 million barrels, an increase of 78 million barrels compared to the previous period, showing a bearish signal [3][8]