花旗：全球股票策略-又一轮债券抛售，评估风险

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it Core Insights - The evolving rates narrative is a key risk for equities, with current pressures on U.S. Treasuries driven by fiscal concerns related to ongoing budget negotiations [1][9] - Rising yields are expected to suppress equity valuations, but the impact is diminishing, indicating that current equity valuations are extended but not exuberant [5][30] - Equity risk premia (ERP) have increased year-to-date, providing potential room for contraction to offset the effects of higher yields on equity valuations [6][26] Summary by Sections Bond Market Dynamics - The long-end of the U.S. Treasury curve has seen a rise of 43 basis points in the 30-year yield month-to-date due to fiscal concerns [2][11] - A weak 20-year Treasury auction signals bearish sentiment and potential buyer strike risks [2][11] Rates Risks - While global equities can initially absorb higher rates, a continued bond sell-off may lead to increased stock market volatility [3][10] Performance Analysis - In the current Fed cutting cycle, Treasury yields have risen atypically while equities have performed as expected, though higher rates are likely restraining equity performance [4][19] - U.S. equities have increased approximately 5% since the first Fed cut, while European equities have risen about 7%, both below historical averages [19] Valuation Insights - Valuations are seen as the primary transmission mechanism from yields to equities, with current U.S. and European valuations appearing high but not excessive [5][24][30] - European sectors sensitive to rising rates include leveraged Utilities, Real Estate, and Telecoms, while sectors likely to outperform include Energy, Basic Resources, and Banks [25] Equity Risk Premiums - The equity risk premium has risen amidst macro uncertainties, providing a buffer against rising bond yields [6][26] - Current estimates of developed market ERPs are around 3%, compared to lows of 1.5% in 2023, suggesting a potential buffer against rising nominal yields [26][31] Future Outlook - The ability of equities to withstand higher rates depends on the accompanying economic conditions; solid global growth and contained inflation can mitigate risks, while slowing growth and stubborn inflation may pose challenges [7][34]