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摩根士丹利：人形机器人与全球材料-机器人来了…… 瞄准关键矿产
300024SIASUN(300024) 摩根·2025-05-23 05:25

Investment Rating - The report upgrades LYC.AX from Underweight (UW) to Overweight (OW) and ILU from Equal Weight (EW) to Overweight (OW) [5] Core Insights - The humanoid market is projected to reach 0.9 million units and 0.02trillionby2030,134millionunitsand0.02 trillion by 2030, 134 million units and 1.2 trillion by 2040, and 1,019 million units and 4.7trillionby2050,witheachhumanoidrequiringsignificantamountsofcriticalminerals[4][11][40]−Cumulativeincrementaldemandforcriticalmineralscouldreachupto4.7 trillion by 2050, with each humanoid requiring significant amounts of critical minerals [4][11][40] - Cumulative incremental demand for critical minerals could reach up to 800 billion by 2050, with humanoids potentially adding 40% to 167% to the demand for rare earths (specifically NdPr) by 2040 to 2050 [4][16][63] - The report highlights that Chinese enterprises control a significant portion of the supply for critical minerals, necessitating supply chain diversification for western producers [4][21][66] Summary by Sections Humanoid Market Projections - Humanoids could create a market of 0.9 million units and 0.02trillionby2030,134millionunitsand0.02 trillion by 2030, 134 million units and 1.2 trillion by 2040, and 1,019 million units and 4.7trillionby2050[4][11][40]−Eachhumanoidisestimatedtorequireapproximately0.9kgofNdPr,2kgoflithium,6.5kgofcopper,1.4kgofnickel,180gofcobalt,and3kgofgraphite[4][11][40]DemandforCriticalMinerals−Incrementaldemandfromhumanoidscouldaddupto4.7 trillion by 2050 [4][11][40] - Each humanoid is estimated to require approximately 0.9 kg of NdPr, 2 kg of lithium, 6.5 kg of copper, 1.4 kg of nickel, 180 g of cobalt, and 3 kg of graphite [4][11][40] Demand for Critical Minerals - Incremental demand from humanoids could add up to 800 billion across covered critical minerals by 2050, with significant increases in demand for NdPr, lithium, cobalt, and nickel [4][16][63] - By 2050, the annual added demand for critical minerals could be between 50billionand50 billion and 120 billion [4][16][63] Supply Chain Dynamics - Chinese enterprises currently control 65% of rare earths, 27% of lithium, approximately 70% of nickel, 55% of cobalt, and 82% of graphite, highlighting the need for diversification in supply chains [4][21][66] - The average lead time for new mines has increased to approximately 17.8 years, posing challenges for meeting rising demand for critical minerals [4][22][66] Price Forecasts and Market Opportunities - The report upgrades long-term price forecasts for rare earths, specifically increasing the NdPr price from 135pertonto135 per ton to 209 per ton [30][66] - A list of 34 companies is provided for investors to capitalize on the thematic of incremental humanoid demand for critical minerals [5][30]