《能源化工》日报-20250523

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term prices are supported due to planned outages, delayed PTA maintenance, and restart of previous maintenance devices. Suggest short - term focus around 6600, and consider PX9 - 10 positive spreads and PX - SC positive spreads [18]. - PTA: Weekly supply - demand weakens, downstream polyester losses increase, and terminal demand is in a wait - and - see state. Short - term is under pressure. Suggest short - term focus on support around 4600 and TA9 - 1 short - selling on rallies [18]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Expected to de - stock from May to June, but the upside is limited by polyester factory production cuts. Suggest unilateral wait - and - see and EG9 - 1 positive spreads on dips [18]. - Short - fiber: Processing fees may be repaired, but short - term absolute prices are dragged down by oil price drops. Suggest PF unilateral trading similar to PTA and expanding PF processing fees at low levels [18]. - Bottle chips: Supply has an incremental expectation, but short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Suggest PR unilateral trading similar to PTA and focus on expanding processing fees at the lower end of the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range [18]. Urea Industry - The inventory pressure of domestic urea factories is becoming more obvious, and the market may continue to oscillate and bottom. The downward space of the futures market depends on cost support. Future attention should be paid to inventory inflection points, export port collection trends, and coal price fluctuations [28]. Polyolefin Industry - PE: Overall trading is weak, but supply before early June is reduced due to maintenance and imports are low. Demand improves due to tariff cuts, and inventory is expected to decrease. - PP: Supply pressure increases after late May, but there is short - term demand support. Suggest unilateral short - selling on rallies and LP spreads expansion [31]. Crude Oil Industry - OPEC+ is discussing further production increases in July, and industry members are over - producing. US commercial crude inventories are accumulating, and gasoline and distillate demand is weak. Short - term oil prices will oscillate widely. Suggest a band - trading strategy, with WTI in the [59, 69] range, Brent in the [61, 71] range, and SC in the [450, 510] range. Consider buying volatility in the options market [75]. Styrene Industry - Crude oil price drops drag down the aromatics series. Styrene's recent rebound is weakening. Downstream 3S has high inventory, and raw material pure benzene supply - demand is not improving. Suggest a medium - term bearish view and focus on EB - BZ spread widening opportunities [81]. Methanol Industry - The inland methanol valuation has a downward pressure, production recovers after spring maintenance, and the port starts to accumulate inventory. The 09 contract is under pressure. Suggest short - selling MA09 on rallies [84]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda: Short - term supply pressure is limited, demand from alumina is expected to increase, and spot prices are supported. However, non - aluminum demand pressure and cost reduction pose risks. Suggest unilateral wait - and - see. - PVC: The recent rebound is due to macro - stimulus, export support, and supply - demand balance. But in the long - term, there is an over - supply pressure due to the real estate situation. Suggest a medium - term short - selling strategy with a resistance level around 5100 for the 09 contract [89][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry - Downstream Polyester Products: On May 22, POY150/48 price was 6990 yuan/ton (- 0.4% from the previous day), FDY150/96 was 7275 yuan/ton, DTY150/48 was 8220 yuan/ton, etc. [18] - Upstream Prices: Brent crude (July) was 64.91 dollars/barrel (- 0.7% from the previous day), WTI crude (June) was 61.20 dollars/barrel, etc. [18] - PX - related: CFR China PX was 835 dollars/ton (- 1.4% from the previous day), PX - crude was 353 dollars/ton (- 2.4% from the previous day) [18]. - PTA - related: PTA华东现货价格 was 4895 yuan/ton (- 0.7% from the previous day), TA期货2509 was 4788 yuan/ton (- 1.8% from the previous day) [18]. - MEG - related: MEG港口库存 was 74.3 tons (- 1.1% from the previous day), MEG到港预期 was 10.9 tons [18]. Urea Industry - Futures Prices: On May 22, the 01 contract was 1766 yuan/ton (- 0.39% from the previous day), the 05 contract was 1772 yuan/ton (- 0.51% from the previous day), etc. [23] - Futures Spreads: The 01 contract - 05 contract spread was - 6 yuan/ton (25.00% change from the previous day), the 05 contract - 09 contract spread was - 77 yuan/ton (- 4.05% change from the previous day) [24]. - Upstream Raw Materials: On May 22, the price of无烟煤小块 (Jincheng) was 1000 yuan/ton, the price of动力煤坑口 (Yijinhuoluoqi) was 410 yuan/ton [26]. - Spot Market: On May 22, the price of山东 (small particles) was 1880 yuan/ton, the price of山西 (small particles) was 1750 yuan/ton (- 0.57% from the previous day) [27]. - Supply - Demand: On May 23, the domestic urea daily output was 20.48 tons (1.49% increase from the previous day), the domestic urea weekly output was 142.55 tons (2.20% increase from the previous week) [28]. Polyolefin Industry - PE/PP Prices: On May 22, L2505 was 7083 yuan/ton (- 0.80% from the previous day), PP2505 was 6938 yuan/ton (- 0.74% from the previous day) [31]. - PE/PP Non - standard Prices: On May 22, the price of华东LDPE was 9000 yuan/ton (- 1.64% from the previous day), the price of华东HD膜 was 7550 yuan/ton [32]. - PE Upstream and Downstream: The PE装置开工率 was 78.0% (- 1.80% from the previous value), the PE下游加权开工率 was 39.4% (0.33% increase from the previous value) [33]. - PE Inventory: The PE企业库存 (Wednesday update) was 49.8 tons (- 5.57% from the previous value), the PE社会库存 (Monday update) was 59.3 tons (- 2.85% from the previous value) [34]. Crude Oil Industry - Crude Oil Prices and Spreads: On May 23, Brent was 64.44 dollars/barrel (- 0.72% from May 22), WTI was 60.75 dollars/barrel (- 0.74% from May 22) [75]. - Refined Oil Prices and Spreads: On May 23, NYM RBOB was 212.57 cents/gallon (- 0.26% from May 22), NYM ULSD was 210.89 cents/gallon (- 0.41% from May 22) [75]. - Refined Oil Crack Spreads: On May 23, the US gasoline crack spread was 28.53 dollars/barrel (0.77% increase from May 22), the European gasoline crack spread was 16.93 dollars/barrel [75]. Styrene Industry - Upstream: On May 22, Brent原油 (July) was 64.4 dollars/barrel (- 0.7% from the previous day), CFR日本石脑油 was 563.0 dollars/ton (- 2.4% from the previous day) [78]. - Spot and Futures: On May 22, the苯乙烯华东现货价 was 7765.0 yuan/ton (- 1.0% from the previous day), EB2506 was 7452.0 yuan/ton (- 1.7% from the previous day) [79]. - Overseas Quotes and Import Profits: On May 22, the苯乙烯CFR中国 was 906.0 dollars/ton (- 1.6% from the previous day), the苯乙烯进口利润 was 109.1 yuan/ton (29.8% increase from the previous day) [80]. - Industry开工率 and利润: The苯乙烯开工率 was 71.3% (- 1.3% from the previous value), the苯乙烯一体化利润 was 519.7 yuan/ton (349.6% increase from the previous value) [81]. Methanol Industry - Methanol Prices and Spreads: On May 22, MA2501 was 2311 yuan/ton (- 1.37% from the previous day), MA2505 was 2259 yuan/ton (- 3.59% from the previous day) [84]. - Inventory: The methanol企业库存 was 33.401% (- 0.52% from the previous value), the甲醇港口库存 was 49.0 tons (1.34% increase from the previous value) [84]. - Upstream and Downstream开工率: The上游 - 国内企业开工率 was 74.51% (- 1.31% from the previous value), the下游 - 外采MTO装置开工率 was 83.54% (10.39% increase from the previous value) [84]. Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC/烧碱现货 & 期货: On May 22, the price of山东32%液碱折自价 was 2656.3 yuan/ton, the price of华东电石法PVC市场价 was 4830.0 yuan/ton [89]. - 烧碱海外报价 & 出口利润: On May 8, the FOB华东港口 was 395.0 dollars/ton, the出口利润 was 46.9 yuan/ton [89]. - PVC海外报价 & 出口利润: On February 15, the CFR东南亚 was 670.0 dollars/ton, the出口利润 was 54.1 yuan/ton [89]. - Supply (开工率 and利润): The烧碱行业开工率 was 85.8% (- 1.9% from the previous value), the外采电石法PVC利润 was - 1042.0 yuan/ton (2.8% increase from the previous value) [89]. - Demand (开工率): The氧化铝行业开工率 was 77.0% (- 3.3% from the previous value), the隆众样本管材开工率 was 49.1% (1.9% increase from the previous value) [90][91]. - Inventory: On May 15, the液碱华东厂库库存 was 19.4 tons (0.3% increase from the previous value), the PVC总社会库存 was 39.7 tons (- 3.1% from the previous value) [91].