芳烃橡胶早报-20250523

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the near - end TA start - up has rebounded month - on - month, polyester start - up has increased, inventory has continued to decline, and the basis has strengthened overall. Although the spot processing fee has declined month - on - month, it remains at a relatively high level. In the future, considering TA's sufficient maintenance in the first half of the year and still having production plans, attention should be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the far - month TA processing fee [1]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic oil - based production has unexpected shut - downs, and coal - based production has planned maintenance. With less arrivals at ports, port inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to the phased positive spread opportunity [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, although the inventory has decreased month - on - month, the overall high supply and the downstream's pressured profit make it difficult for the fundamentals to improve significantly. However, the processing fee on the futures market has been compressed to a relatively low level, and it is expected to remain weak [1]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory has slightly decreased, and the Thai cup lump price has rebounded slightly. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - Market data: From May 16th to 22nd, 2025, the PTA spot price fluctuated, with the lowest at 4860 and the highest at 4995. The PX processing margin decreased from 274.0 to 258.0, the polyester production - sales ratio fluctuated, and the PTA device had changes such as the restart of Zhongtai's 1.2 million - ton device and the maintenance of Tongkun's 3 million - ton device [1]. MEG - Market data: From May 16th to 22nd, 2025, the MEG price decreased, with the lowest at 4501 and the highest at 4570. The coal - based MEG profit decreased from - 304 to - 366. The Sanjiang's 1 million - ton device stopped due to an accident [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Market data: From May 1st to around May 22nd, 2025, the spot price of polyester staple fiber decreased from around 6750 to around 6660. The start - up rate increased to 96.2% due to the load increase of Shanghai Yuanfang and Jiangyin Youcai. The downstream yarn - making start - up rate remained stable, but the profit weakened [1]. Natural Rubber - Market data: From May 1st to around May 22nd, 2025, the price of various types of natural rubber fluctuated. For example, the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased from 15900 to 15750. The national explicit inventory slightly decreased, and the Thai cup lump price rebounded slightly [1]. Styrene and Its Products - Market data: From May 16th to 22nd, 2025, the price of styrene and related products such as pure benzene and EPS fluctuated. The production profit of PS and EPS also changed, and the start - up rate of EPS and ABS remained at a certain level [1].