BABA(09988) 群益证券·2025-05-23 08:16Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [7][8]. Core Insights - Alibaba's FY25 Q4 revenue reached RMB 236.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, slightly below market expectations of RMB 237.91 billion. The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB 12.382 billion, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 279% [8]. - The report highlights strong growth in the Taobao Group's revenue, which increased by 12% year-on-year to RMB 71.077 billion in FY25 Q4, driven by an increase in commission rates and a growing 88VIP membership base [11]. - The cloud intelligence business faced pressure, with revenue of RMB 30.127 billion in FY25 Q4, a year-on-year increase of 18%, but slightly below market expectations due to prior R&D expenses and depreciation [11]. - The report anticipates continued high investment in AI and cloud computing, with expected capital expenditures exceeding RMB 380 billion over the next three years [11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Alibaba operates in the commerce and retail industry, with a market capitalization of HK 119.10 as of May 25, 2022 [2]. Financial Performance - FY25 Q4 net profit was RMB 119.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1203%, attributed to changes in equity investments and operational profit growth [8]. - The report projects net profits for FY2026-2028 to be RMB 141.8 billion, RMB 153 billion, and RMB 164.7 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.0%, 7.9%, and 7.7% [11]. Market Position - The report notes that the Taobao Group and international business segments maintain high growth rates, while the local life group continues to face challenges due to competition in the food delivery sector [11].