大陆房地产行业月度资料点评：4月销售降幅扩大，投资未见好转-20250523

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the real estate industry, suggesting that the sector is still in a recovery phase and may face challenges ahead [22][24]. Core Insights - In April, national real estate sales amounted to 623.7 billion yuan, with a year-over-year decline of 6.7%, and the sales area was 6.4 million square meters, down 2.1% year-over-year [4]. - The investment amount in real estate for April was 782.6 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.3% year-over-year decrease, with the decline expanding by 1.3 percentage points [18]. - The report highlights that the government is expected to implement policies to stabilize the real estate market, with a focus on urban renewal and risk mitigation [22][24]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - April's real estate sales figures show a significant year-over-year decline, with sales amounting to 623.7 billion yuan and a sales area of 6.4 million square meters [4]. - The year-to-date sales from January to April totaled 2.7035 trillion yuan, down 3.2% year-over-year, and the sales area was 28.3 million square meters, down 2.8% year-over-year [4]. Price Trends - In April, the price index for new homes and second-hand homes in 70 major cities decreased by 4.55% and 6.76% year-over-year, respectively, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to March [11]. Investment and Funding - The total investment in real estate for the first four months of 2025 was 2.773 trillion yuan, down 10.3% year-over-year [18]. - The funding received by real estate companies in April was 786.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.8% year-over-year, with most funding sources showing declines [18]. Construction Activity - New construction area in April was 4.8 million square meters, down 22.3% year-over-year, while the completed area was 2.6 million square meters, down 28.1% year-over-year [21]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties stood at 781 million square meters as of April 2025, with a depletion cycle of 8.92 months, remaining stable compared to March [15]. Policy Outlook - The report emphasizes that the government is likely to enhance policy measures to support the real estate sector, focusing on risk management and market stabilization [22][24]. - The expectation is for a 7% year-over-year decline in real estate sales and a 10% decline in investment for the year, although the rate of decline is expected to narrow compared to 2024 [24].