Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - For copper, the inventory drawdown slope may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. The upward momentum of the monthly spread requires substantial shortages or a decline in the absolute price. [1] - For aluminum, the supply-demand gap remains in May, and the inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July. The aluminum price may rebound with the inventory drawdown. The monthly spread long position can be held if the absolute price drops. [2] - For zinc, the price fluctuated widely this week. The inventory accumulation acceleration inflection point is expected to occur at the end of May or early June. It is recommended to short at high prices and continue to hold the long position in the domestic and foreign price spread. [5] - For nickel, the short-term fundamental situation is average, but supported by tariff and mine disturbances, opportunities for the contraction of the nickel-stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored. [6] - For stainless steel, the short-term is a mix of long and short factors, and the reverse spread position can be rolled over and continued to be held. [8] - For lead, the price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 and 17,000 next week, and the supply is expected to decrease in May. [9][10] - For tin, the short-term is recommended to wait and see, and the medium- and long-term should focus on shorting opportunities. [12] - For industrial silicon, the short-term shows a pattern of double reduction in supply and demand, and the medium- and long-term price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. [14] - For lithium carbonate, the short-term downstream demand enters a small peak season, but the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium and long term. [16] Summary by Metal Copper - Market Data: From May 16 to May 22, the Shanghai copper spot premium decreased by 140, the waste refined copper spread decreased by 263, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 9,464. [1] - Market Situation: The domestic inventory showed an inflection point this week, with high selling pressure. The demand shows strong reality and weak expectations, and the inventory drawdown slope may slow down. [1] Aluminum - Market Data: From May 16 to May 22, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 50, the domestic alumina price increased by 52, and the SHFE social inventory remained unchanged. [1] - Market Situation: The supply increased slightly in 1 - 3 months, and the demand decline in May was not obvious. The inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July, and the aluminum price may rebound. [2] Zinc - Market Data: From May 16 to May 22, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 110, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,650. [5] - Market Situation: The price fluctuated widely this week. The supply side had a slight decrease in smelting maintenance in May, and the demand side had general domestic demand and a slight recovery in overseas demand. The inventory accumulation acceleration inflection point is expected to occur at the end of May or early June. [5] Nickel - Market Data: From May 16 to May 22, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 100, the spot import return decreased by 489.12, and the LME inventory decreased by 876. [6] - Market Situation: The pure nickel production remained at a high level, the demand was weak, and the overseas nickel beans had a slight inventory drawdown. The short-term fundamental situation is average, but supported by tariff and mine disturbances. [6] Stainless Steel - Market Data: From May 16 to May 22, the price of 304 cold-rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50. [6] - Market Situation: The production may decrease passively in May, the demand is mainly rigid, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly. The short-term is a mix of long and short factors. [6][8] Lead - Market Data: From May 16 to May 22, the spot premium decreased by 5, the LME inventory increased by 13,700, and the LME cancelled warrants decreased by 4,125. [8] - Market Situation: The price fluctuated upward this week. The supply side had tight raw materials and concentrated capacity release in the middle reaches, and the demand side had weak overall demand. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 and 17,000 next week. [9][10] Tin - Market Data: From May 16 to May 22, the spot import return increased by 2,110.12, the spot export return decreased by 1,586.48, and the LME inventory decreased by 5. [12] - Market Situation: The price fluctuated narrowly this week. The supply side had mine supply disturbances, and the demand side had limited elasticity. The short-term is recommended to wait and see, and the medium- and long-term should focus on shorting opportunities. [12] Industrial Silicon - Market Data: From May 16 to May 22, the 553 East China basis decreased by 65, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 355. [14] - Market Situation: The northern large factories maintained production cuts this week, and the downstream demand continued to weaken. The short-term shows a pattern of double reduction in supply and demand, and the medium- and long-term price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. [14] Lithium Carbonate - Market Data: From May 16 to May 22, the SMM electric carbon price remained unchanged, the SMM industrial carbon price remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 530. [16] - Market Situation: The price fluctuated downward this week. The overall production increased, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. The short-term downstream demand enters a small peak season, but the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium and long term. [16]
永安期货有色早报-20250523
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-05-23 08:30