Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the spot price of domestic butadiene rubber in the market dropped from a high level. Due to strong demand for raw material butadiene and unexpected shutdown of some plants, the production cost of butadiene rubber has increased significantly. Although most private butadiene rubber plants in North China have reduced their production to varying degrees, the weak downstream demand has led to increased inventory in production enterprises and sample trading enterprises. It is expected that the inventory of trading enterprises will decline in the short term. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has continued to increase this week, but the production schedule of some enterprises has been slightly adjusted, and a few enterprises have maintenance plans at the end of the month, which may affect the overall capacity utilization rate. The br2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,500 - 12,000 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - Market Review: The spot price of domestic butadiene rubber dropped from a high level this week. As of May 21, the mainstream price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market was around 12,200 yuan/ton [7]. - Market Outlook: The price of raw material butadiene has continued to rise, increasing the production cost of butadiene rubber. The inventory of production enterprises and sample trading enterprises has increased, and it is expected that the inventory of trading enterprises will decline in the short term. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has continued to increase, but the production schedule adjustment of some enterprises and maintenance plans of a few enterprises may affect the overall capacity utilization rate [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: The br2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,500 - 12,000 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 3.96% [11]. - As of May 23, the 6 - 7 spread of butadiene rubber was - 85 [18]. - As of May 23, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 6,790 tons, a decrease of 190 tons from last week [21]. - Spot Market - As of May 22, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 12,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from last week [25]. - As of May 22, the basis of butadiene rubber was 170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3.3 Industrial Situation - Upstream - As of May 22, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 563.38 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 780 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [28]. - As of May 23, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 67.73%, a decrease of 0.29% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 28,200 tons, a decrease of 2,670 tons from last week [31]. - Industry - In April 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 121,500 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons from the previous month. As of May 22, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 75.57%, a decrease of 3.63% from last week [34]. - As of May 22, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 615 yuan/ton, an increase of 618 yuan/ton from last week [37]. - As of May 21, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 32,800 tons, an increase of 600 tons from last week. As of May 23, the domestic butadiene rubber manufacturer inventory was 27,000 tons, an increase of 350 tons from last week; the trading enterprise inventory was 5,800 tons, an increase of 330 tons from last week [42]. - Downstream - As of May 22, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.74%, a month - on - month increase of 2.53 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.35 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.09%, a month - on - month increase of 2.21 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.11 percentage points [45]. - In April 2025, China's tire export volume was 696,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.14% and a year - on - year increase of 6.11%. From January to April, China's cumulative tire export volume was 2,645,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.01% [49].
合成橡胶市场周报-20250523
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-23 09:18