瑞达期货天然橡胶市场周报-20250523

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market lacked effective drivers, and rubber prices showed a weakening trend in a fluctuating manner. Imported rubber market offers declined, and factory procurement was average. The price of domestic natural rubber decreased, with the futures market weakening and the spot market following suit. Sellers were reluctant to sell at low prices, and downstream buyers replenished stocks cautiously, resulting in average market trading [7]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to harvest. In Yunnan, recent rainy weather has delayed the concentrated supply, keeping raw material prices high. In Hainan, the weather has improved, and raw material output has increased but is still lower than the same period last year. Local processing plants are still purchasing raw materials at a premium. Overseas supplies arriving at ports have decreased, and the inbound volume of bonded warehouses has declined month - on - month. However, due to weak buying, the outbound volume is insufficient, and bonded warehouses are still accumulating inventory. General trade inventories are being depleted at an accelerated pace. Tire companies' capacity utilization is gradually recovering, driving up the提货 volume from Qingdao warehouses. The outbound rate is significantly higher than the inbound rate, and the total inventory of Qingdao spot decreased last week [7]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization of domestic tire companies continued to increase week - on - week. Most companies' production schedules are becoming stable, but some companies have slightly reduced production to control inventory growth, limiting the overall increase in capacity utilization. A few companies plan to conduct maintenance at the end of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization [7]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,200 - 15,000 in the short term, and the nr2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,350 - 13,000 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The natural rubber market lacked effective drivers this week, with rubber prices fluctuating weakly. Imported rubber offers declined, and domestic rubber prices decreased. Sellers were reluctant to sell at low prices, and downstream buyers replenished stocks cautiously [7]. - Market Outlook: Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to harvest. Yunnan's supply is delayed due to rain, while Hainan's output has improved but is still lower than usual. Overseas supplies to ports have decreased, but bonded warehouses are still accumulating inventory. General trade inventories are being depleted. Tire companies' capacity utilization is recovering, but some companies may reduce production or conduct maintenance [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,200 - 15,000, and the nr2507 contract between 12,350 - 13,000 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Price Movement: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed down 2.48% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber closed down 0.43% week - on - week [10]. - Position Analysis: Not elaborated in the summary part, only mentioned the position changes of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber [14][18]. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of May 23, the spread between the September and January contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 785 [21]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of May 23, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 199,540 tons, a decrease of 730 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 43,544 tons, a decrease of 26,713 tons from last week [26]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price: As of May 23, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from last week [32]. - Shanghai Rubber Basis: As of May 23, the Shanghai rubber basis was 165 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton from last week [32]. - 20 - Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis: As of May 22, the 20 - rubber basis was 94 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - Thailand's Raw Material Price and Processing Profit: As of May 22, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 62.75 (+1) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lumps was 54.05 (- 0.1) Thai baht/kg. As of May 23, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 112 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 59 US dollars/ton from last week [40]. - Domestic Producing Areas' Raw Material Price: As of May 22, the price of Yunnan latex was 14,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 14,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week [43]. 3.3.2 Import - In April 2025, China's natural rubber (including various types) imports were 523,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.93% and a year - on - year increase of 41.64%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.2089 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 24.25% [46]. 3.3.3 Inventory in Qingdao - As of May 18, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.73%. The bonded area inventory was 92,100 tons, an increase of 2.34%; the general trade inventory was 522,100 tons, a decrease of 1.25%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's sample bonded warehouses decreased by 1.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.25 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.20 percentage points [49]. 3.3.4 Downstream - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of May 22, the capacity utilization of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.74%, a week - on - week increase of 2.53 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.35 percentage points; the capacity utilization of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.09%, a week - on - week increase of 2.21 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.11 percentage points. Most companies' production schedules are becoming stable, but some have slightly reduced production to control inventory [52]. - Tire Exports: In April 2025, China's tire exports were 696,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.14% and a year - on - year increase of 6.11%. From January to April, the cumulative tire exports were 2.6455 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.01%. Among them, the export of passenger car tires was 257,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.39% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.94%. From January to April, the cumulative export of passenger car tires was 1.0461 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.04%. The export of truck and bus tires was 410,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.43% and a year - on - year increase of 10.11%. From January to April, the cumulative export of truck and bus tires was 1.4897 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.45% [55]. - Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales): In April 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 19% from March and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4% compared with 82,300 vehicles in the same period last year. Cumulatively, from January to April this year, the heavy - duty truck market sold about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat performance [58]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Not mentioned in the provided content