贵金属市场周报：美国财政问题加剧，金价强势超跌反弹-20250523

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The gold price rebounded strongly this week due to factors such as Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and fiscal concerns triggered by Trump's tax - cut bill. In the medium - to - long - term, the gold price is supported by safe - haven demand and a weaker US dollar, while the silver price follows the gold price but is relatively soft due to economic uncertainties, yet its demand remains resilient [7]. - For the outlook, the previously released CPI and PPI data suggest potential Fed rate cuts this year, but tariff policy uncertainties and the US debt problem may make the global de - dollarization trend persist. Gold investment demand is solid, and in the case of silver, although the price is affected by gold, the silver - gold ratio has moved up [7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Highlights - Market Drivers: The gold price rebounded due to factors like Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating, tensions in the Middle East, and fiscal concerns from Trump's tax - cut bill. The downgraded dollar credit rating and potential future debt increases provide long - term support for the gold price. However, the strong US labor market led to a short - term strengthening of the dollar, suppressing the gold price. The silver price followed the gold price but was relatively soft, and its demand remains resilient [7]. - Market Outlook: In the medium - to - long - term, the gold price is supported by safe - haven demand and a weaker dollar. The silver price is affected by the gold price, and the silver - gold ratio has moved up due to economic uncertainties [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Price Movements: As of May 23, 2025, COMEX gold was at $3324.7 per ounce, up 4.30% week - on - week; Shanghai gold futures were at 780.10 yuan per gram, up 3.76%. COMEX silver was at $33.38 per ounce, up 3.16%; Shanghai silver futures were at 8263 yuan per kilogram, up 1.95% [10]. - ETF Holdings: As of May 22, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 0.44% to 923.89 tons, while the SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 0.55% to 14132.66 tons [16]. - COMEX Positions: As of May 13, 2025, COMEX gold total positions decreased by 2.56% to 440842 contracts, and net positions decreased by 0.79% to 161209 contracts. COMEX silver total positions decreased by 1.43% to 138262 contracts, and net positions decreased by 3.04% to 47754 contracts [19]. - Basis Changes: As of May 23, 2025, the gold basis was - 4.38 yuan per gram, down 87.98% week - on - week, and the silver basis was - 19 yuan per kilogram, up 42.42% [23]. - Inventory Changes: COMEX and Shanghai gold and silver inventories showed mixed changes [24]. 3. Industry Situation - Silver Industry: As of the end of March 2025, China's silver import volume decreased. The year - on - year growth rate of downstream integrated circuit production slowed down, and the overall silver supply - demand was in a tight - balance state [34][36]. - Gold Industry: This week, the gold recycling price and jewelry price continued to rise, and the gold investment demand increased month - on - month [41][47]. 4. Macro and Options - Macro Data: This week, the US dollar index fluctuated downward, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased significantly. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility rebounded, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio decreased [50][55].