硅锰市场周报：库存压制价格反弹，煤炭拖累成本支撑-20250523

Report Title - Silicon Manganese Market Weekly Report: Inventory Suppresses Price Rebound, Coal Drags Down Cost Support [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The silicon manganese market is expected to oscillate weakly. Despite manufacturers reducing production and the operating rate reaching a low level compared to the same period, high overall inventory suppresses prices. The coal price is weak on the cost side, and steel mills mainly make rigid - demand purchases on the demand side [5][6] Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Macro Aspect: From January to April, China's cumulative crude steel production was 345.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The central budget investment plan for urban renewal this year will be issued by the end of June. In May, both the 5 - year and 1 - year LPRs were cut by 10 basis points. In April, China's rebar production was 17.30 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%, while the cumulative production from January to April was 65.385 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9% [6] - Overseas Aspect: Trump announced a $100 - billion missile defense system. The yield of the 30 - year US Treasury bond soared to 5.1%, approaching a 20 - year high, indicating investors' opposition to Trump's tax - cut plan and concerns about fiscal deficits putting pressure on the stock market [6] - Supply - Demand Aspect: The wage negotiation between South Africa's Transnet and the UNTU union may lead to a strike, affecting manganese ore shipments, causing a short - term price increase in manganese silicon. After the short - term news impact fades, the price returns to a weak reality. Manufacturers' production cuts have led to a low operating rate, but the overall inventory is still high. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 231,000 tons, and there is an expectation of coke price cuts. The molten iron output has declined from a high level. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 190 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 230 yuan/ton. Steel mills' procurement is cautious, and the tender price continues to fall [6] - Technical Aspect: The weekly K - line of the manganese silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6] - Strategy Suggestion: Operate with the view that silicon manganese will oscillate weakly [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of May 23, the silicon manganese futures contract open interest was 618,900 lots, a decrease of 1,543 lots compared to the previous period. The spread between the 1 - 9 contracts of silicon manganese was 62, a decrease of 12 compared to the previous period. The number of manganese silicon warehouse receipts was 114,457, a decrease of 3,730 compared to the previous period. The spread between the September contracts of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon was 288, an increase of 48 compared to the previous period [12][16] - Spot Market: As of May 23, the average ex - factory price of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 68 yuan/ton, an increase of 190 compared to the previous period [22] 3. Industrial Chain Situation - Industry: As of May 22, the operating rate (capacity utilization) of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises nationwide was 34.18%, an increase of 0.58% compared to the previous week. The daily average output was 23,600 tons, an increase of 350 tons. The weekly demand for silicon manganese in the five major steel grades was 126,590 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.76%. The weekly supply of silicon manganese nationwide was 165,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The inventory of 63 independent silicon manganese enterprises decreased by 6,000 tons to 201,100 tons [25][31] - Upstream: On May 22, the price of South African manganese ore at Tianjin Port was 35 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged from the previous period; the price of Australian manganese ore was 43 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged from the previous period. As of May 19, the electricity price for silicon manganese and ferrosilicon in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia was 0.41 yuan/kWh, unchanged from the previous period. On May 16, the port inventory of imported manganese ore was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 232,000 tons compared to the previous period. The global shipment volume of South African, Australian, and Gabonese manganese ore increased by 64.41%, 82.28%, and 78.99% respectively compared to the previous week. As of May 22, the spot production cost of silicon manganese in the northern region was 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; in the southern region, it was 6,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The spot production profit in the northern region was - 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; in the southern region, it was - 550 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [37][45][52] - Downstream: As of May 23, the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.436 million tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 68,000 tons compared to the same period last year. In May, Hebei Iron and Steel's silicon manganese tender price was 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton compared to April [58]