花生市场周报「2025.05.23」-20250523

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main peanut contract 2510 rose by 0.92%, closing at 8308 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, peanut imports continued to decline in April, and the overall import demand was still significantly lower than the same period last year. However, the peanut inventory of sample oil mills was at a relatively high level in history, resulting in a relatively loose supply. On the demand side, although the profit of oil mill crushing turned from loss to profit, boosting market confidence, the downstream demand was weak, the operating rate decreased significantly year-on-year, and there was a wait - and - see attitude towards the existing inventory at stable prices. Traders made purchases as needed, and the overall trading atmosphere was dull. In addition, in the oil market, the significant decline in crude oil prices during the inventory accumulation period and the lower - than - expected demand outlook for US soybean oil led to a decline in the oil sector. Overall, with weak demand and loose supply, peanut prices are expected to decline oscillatingly [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review: This week, the main peanut contract 2510 rose by 0.92%, closing at 8308 yuan/ton [8]. - Market Outlook: Supply is relatively loose, and demand is weak. Peanut prices are expected to decline oscillatingly [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price Movement: The main peanut contract 2510 rose by 0.92%, closing at 8308 yuan/ton [12]. - Futures Spread: The closing price spread between peanut contracts 2510 and 2601 narrowed, closing at 8308 yuan/ton [16]. - Net Position of Top 20 Traders: As of May 23, 2024, the net position of the top 20 traders in peanut futures was - 7485 lots, an increase of 3409 lots compared to last week [22]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of May 23, 2024, the number of registered peanut warehouse receipts was 0 (-649) [26]. - Spot Price: As of May 23, the spot prices of common peanuts in Shandong and Henan were 8500 (+100) yuan/ton and 8600 (+400) yuan/ton respectively. As of the week of May 10, the average price of national oil - grade peanuts was 7566.7 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.3 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [29]. - Market Structure: As of May 23, 2024, the basis was 158.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the market was in a backwardation state [35]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply Side: The peanut harvest area in 2025 is expected to increase slightly [40]. - Oil Mill Operations: As of May 23, the operating rate of sample oil mills was 12.86 (-0.52)%, a decrease of 11.44% compared to the same period last year; the peanut inventory of sample oil mills was 154280 (+260) tons [45]. - Oil Mill Profit: This week, the processing profit of sample oil mills in Shandong and Henan was 45.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [51]. - Import and Export: In April 2025, the total peanut import volume was 12979.36 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 91.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 2210.54 tons; the total export volume was 17506.64 tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.60% and a month - on - month decrease of 629.61 tons [57]. - Downstream Products - Peanut Oil: As of May 23, the ex - factory price of first - grade ordinary peanut oil was about 14800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to last week; the price of fragrant peanut oil was about 15800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton compared to last week. The price difference between peanut oil and soybean oil was 6770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan/ton compared to last week [63]. - Downstream Products - Peanut Meal: This week, the price of peanut meal in Rizhao, Shandong was 3300 (+0) yuan/ton. As of May 23, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal was 340 yuan/ton, the same as last week [68]. 3.4 Option Market - Historical Volatility: As of May 23, the 20 - day historical volatility of the peanut option underlying was 12.31%, a decrease of 1.1% compared to last week; the 40 - day volatility was 11.64%, an increase of 0.18% compared to last week [73].