螺纹钢市场周报:市场情绪低迷,螺纹钢期价震荡偏弱-20250523
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-23 09:38
- Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - The RB2510 contract of rebar is expected to remain oscillating with a bearish bias. Traders should pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [9] - Given that coking coal and coke prices remain weak, steel mills still have profits, the operating rate remains high, and demand confidence is insufficient, it is recommended to buy put options [60] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Market Review - As of May 23, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3046 yuan/ton (-36), and the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3180 yuan/ton (-30) [7] - Rebar production continued to increase to 231.48 million tons (+4.95) [7] - High temperatures in the north and rainfall in the south affected terminal demand, with apparent demand decreasing by 13.16 million tons to 247.13 million tons (year-on-year -31.04) [7] - Factory inventories increased, social inventories declined, and total inventories continued to decrease. The total rebar inventory was 6.0422 billion tons (-15.65), year-on-year -179.88 million tons [7] - The profitability rate of steel mills was 59.74%, a week-on-week increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 5.63 percentage points [7] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro方面: Overseas, Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, and there were reports of OPEC+ considering a production increase in July; domestically, the central bank cut LPR, and the National Development and Reform Commission plans to introduce measures to stabilize employment and the economy [9] - Supply and demand方面: Rebar weekly production increased again, with electric furnace steel production also rising; terminal demand was affected by high temperatures and rainfall, with apparent demand decreasing [9] - Cost方面: Iron ore showed resistance to decline due to a continued decrease in arrivals and port inventories, while coking coal and coke prices continued to hit new lows due to loose supply and expected reduction in hot metal [9] - Technical方面: The RB2510 contract oscillated downward, with the daily K-line under pressure from multiple moving averages; the MACD indicator showed DIFF and DEA running below the 0 axis, with the red bar shrinking [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures prices oscillated downward this week. The RB2510 contract was stronger than the RB2601 contract, with a spread of -13 yuan/ton on the 23rd, a week-on-week increase of 12 yuan/ton [15] - Rebar warehouse receipts decreased this week, and the net short position of the top 20 holders increased. On May 23, the warehouse receipt volume of rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 41,979 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 101,222 tons; the net short position of the top 20 holders of the rebar futures contract was 62,339 contracts, a decrease of 18,043 contracts from the previous week [22] - Spot prices declined this week, and the basis weakened. On May 23, the spot price of Hangzhou Grade III rebar was 3,180 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3,295 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 40 yuan/ton. The basis on the 23rd was 134 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 24 yuan/ton [28] 3.3 Upstream Market - This week, the spot price of iron ore and coke decreased. On May 23, the price of 61% Australian Macfens ore at Qingdao Port was 801 yuan/dry ton, a week-on-week decrease of 15 yuan/dry ton; the spot price of first-grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1,490 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 50 yuan/ton [33] - The arrivals at 47 ports decreased this period, and port inventories declined. The total arrivals at 47 ports from May 12 - 18 were 22.804 million tons, a decrease of 2.896 million tons; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 22.713 million tons, a decrease of 833,000 tons; the total arrivals at the six northern ports were 10.578 million tons, a decrease of 2.036 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 145.9183 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.5516 million tons [37] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants decreased, and coke inventories increased. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.18%, a decrease of 0.05%; the daily coke output was 535,900 tons, a decrease of 400 tons; coke inventories were 731,000 tons, an increase of 76,400 tons; the total inventory of coking coal was 7.3796 million tons, a decrease of 146,000 tons; the available days of coking coal were 10.4 days, a decrease of 0.2 days [40] 3.4 Industry Situation - Supply端: From January to April, the cumulative output of crude steel increased by 0.4% year-on-year. In April, China's crude steel output was 86.02 million tons, unchanged year-on-year. In April, China's steel exports were 10.462 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%; from January to April, steel exports were 37.891 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%. In April, steel imports were 522,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.7%; from January to April, steel imports were 2.072 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9% [45] - Supply端: The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills decreased. On May 23, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.69%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.46 percentage points, a year-on-year increase of 2.19 percentage points; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 91.32%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.44 percentage points, a year-on-year increase of 2.78 percentage points; the daily hot metal output was 2.436 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 11,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 68,000 tons [48] - Supply端: The operating rate of electric arc furnaces increased. On May 22, the weekly capacity utilization rate of rebar in 139 building material production enterprises was 50.74%, a week-on-week increase of 1.08%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.94%. On May 23, the average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 77.18%, a week-on-week increase of 1.98 percentage points, a year-on-year increase of 3.78 percentage points [51] - Supply端: The total rebar inventory decreased. On May 22, the in-factory inventory of rebar in 137 building material production enterprises was 1.8776 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 27,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 150,900 tons; the social inventory of building steel in 35 major cities was 4.1646 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 184,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6479 million tons. The total rebar inventory was 6.0422 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 156,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7988 million tons [54] - Demand端: In January - April 2025, the newly started housing area decreased by 23.8% year-on-year, and infrastructure investment increased by 5.8% year-on-year [57] 3.5 Option Market - Given that coking coal and coke prices remain weak, steel mills still have profits, the operating rate remains high, and demand confidence is insufficient, it is recommended to buy put options [60]