Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of coking coal is abundant, the inventory of clean coal continues to increase, the optimistic sentiment from tariff agreements has faded, and coal prices have fallen again. The main contradiction in the next 2 - 3 quarters is that the off - season expectations still dominate the weak reality. - Macro - wise, market sentiment has improved slightly, and the market is mainly driven by the rigid demand for coal replenishment. The main contract of coking coal is expected to fluctuate weakly. [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review - The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 1.936 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,000 tons. - The daily average output of 110 coal washing plants was 52,790 tons, a decrease of 30 tons. - The total inventory of coking coal (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) was 1.84753 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,790 tons and a year - on - year increase of 5.98%. - The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 15 yuan/ton. - The profitability rate of steel mills was 59.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.63 percentage points. - The molten iron output at the demand side declined from a high level. The daily average molten iron output was 243,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,170 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6,800 tons. [7] - Market Outlook - Macro - aspect: From January to April, the national real estate development investment was 277.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%; residential investment was 211.79 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6%. The total foreign direct investment of the whole industry in China from January to April was 57.54 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. - Overseas aspect: On May 20, China and the ten ASEAN countries completed the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 version. The 30 - year US Treasury yield soared to 5.1%, approaching a 20 - year high. - Supply - demand aspect: Supply is abundant, the inventory of clean coal continues to increase, and coal prices have fallen again. The off - season expectations in the 2 - 3 quarters still dominate the weak reality. - Technical aspect: The weekly K - line of the main coking coal contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend. - Strategy recommendation: The main contract of coking coal is expected to fluctuate weakly. [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market - As of May 23, the open interest of coking coal futures contracts was 602,400 lots, a week - on - week increase of 96,100 lots. - As of May 23, the spread between coking coal contracts 1 - 9 was 19.00 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.50 yuan/ton. - As of May 23, the registered warehouse receipts of coking coal were 3,100 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 100 lots. - As of May 23, the spread between the main contracts of coke and coking coal was 581.50, a week - on - week decrease of 11.50 points. [14][20] - Spot Market - As of May 22, 2025, the flat - price of coke at Rizhao Port was 1,460 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1,090 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton. - As of May 23, the basis of coking coal was 262.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15.50 yuan/ton. [26] 3.3 Industrial Chain - Upstream - From January to April, the national raw coal output was 1.585 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 108.95 million tons and a growth of 6.6%. In April 2025, the national raw coal output was 389 million tons, a year - on - year growth of 3.8%, with the growth rate slowing down by 5.8 percentage points compared with March. - In April 2025, China's coking coal output was 4.16147 million tons, a year - on - year growth of 8.23%. - In 2024, China's imported coal was 540 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.4%, hitting a record high, including 121.895 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year increase of 19.62%. From January to April 2025, the total imported coking coal in China was 3.64089 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.09%. [53][57] - Mid - stream - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 86.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.0%. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.936 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,000 tons. - The starting rate of 110 coal washing plants was 62.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.27%; the daily average output was 52,790 tons, a decrease of 30 tons; the raw coal inventory was 316,480 tons, an increase of 10,970 tons; the clean coal inventory was 214,740 tons, an increase of 11,480 tons. - The daily average coke output of independent coking enterprises was 67,300 tons, an increase of 150 tons. - The total inventory of coking coal (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) was 1.84753 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,790 tons and a year - on - year increase of 5.98%. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 535,490 tons, a decrease of 9,980 tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 276,680 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons. - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises was 865,730 tons, a decrease of 19,200 tons; the available days of coking coal were 9.7 days, a decrease of 0.24 days. [30][34][37] - Downstream - The daily average molten iron output was 243,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,170 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6,800 tons. - The profitability rate of steel mills was 59.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.63 percentage points. - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05%; the daily average coke output was 53,590 tons, a decrease of 40 tons. - The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 15 yuan/ton. [43][49]
焦煤市场周报：需求不佳情绪偏弱，供应宽松价格回落-20250523
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-23 09:37