Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, industrial silicon prices fell by 2.82%, mainly due to cost reduction during the wet season and weak downstream demand. The basis weakened, and it is expected that price will be supported after inventory decline. Polysilicon prices rose by 0.32%, with a small increase at the end of Friday due to rumors and news, but its fundamentals remain poor [5]. - Looking ahead, for industrial silicon, supply has a cost advantage during the wet season, but the willingness to resume production in the southwest is low. Downstream demand in organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy sectors is weak, and overall demand is declining. The large number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts still exerts pressure on the market. For polysilicon, supply is operating at a reduced load, demand is weak, and high inventory suppresses prices [5]. - Operationally, it is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon fluctuate within the range of 7,500 - 9,000, with a stop - loss range of 7,300 - 9,200. The main contract of polysilicon should fluctuate in the short - term within the range of 33,000 - 39,000, with a stop - loss range of 34,000 - 42,000 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review: Industrial silicon prices fell by 2.82% this week, with cost reduction during the wet season and weak downstream demand. Polysilicon prices rose by 0.32%, with a small increase at the end of Friday due to rumors and news [5]. - Market Outlook: For industrial silicon, supply has a cost advantage during the wet season, but the willingness to resume production in the southwest is low. Downstream demand is weak, and overall demand is declining. The large number of warehouse receipts exerts pressure on the market. For polysilicon, supply is operating at a reduced load, demand is weak, and high inventory suppresses prices [5]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract of industrial silicon should fluctuate within 7,500 - 9,000, with a stop - loss range of 7,300 - 9,200. The main contract of polysilicon should fluctuate in the short - term within 33,000 - 39,000, with a stop - loss range of 34,000 - 42,000 [5]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - Industrial Silicon: This week, industrial silicon futures and spot prices fell, and the basis weakened. As of May 23, 2025, the spot price was 8,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 735 yuan/ton. The operating rate remained stable, and production increased slightly but was still at a low level. As of May 23, 2025, the overall operating rate was 17.81%, and production was 72,500 tons, an increase of 400 tons from last week [11][13][22]. - Polysilicon: This week, polysilicon futures prices fell significantly, and the basis weakened. As of May 23, 2025, the spot price was 33.5 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.5 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was - 3,510 yuan/g [15][19]. 3. Industry Situation - Industrial Silicon Raw Materials: This week, industrial silicon raw material prices fell, and the market price has fallen below the production cost of most manufacturers. Southwest regions have no intention to resume production due to losses [25]. - Industrial Silicon Inventory: As of May 23, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 65,298 lots, a decrease of 1,233 lots from last week. As of May 16, 2025, the total social inventory of metallic silicon was 599,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons [32]. - Downstream Organic Silicon: Production and operating rate continued to decline, and prices were low. As of May 23, 2025, weekly production was 39,000 tons, a decrease of 200 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 59.31%, a decrease of 0.26%. Spot costs and profits remained flat, and production cuts to support prices had initial results [35][40][46]. - Downstream Aluminum Alloy: Spot prices remained flat, inventory increased, and passive de - stocking continued, making it difficult to drive industrial silicon demand. As of May 23, 2025, the aluminum alloy price was 20,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of May 16, 2025, the aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 15,700 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons [48][53]. - Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell: Silicon wafer prices fell, battery cell prices remained low and flat. After the end of the rush - installation period, polysilicon demand was dragged down. As of May 23, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.12 yuan/piece, unchanged from last week, and the battery cell price was 0.27 yuan/watt, unchanged from last week [55][60]. - Polysilicon Production Cost and Output: This week, the cost of trichlorosilane (photovoltaic grade) for polysilicon production remained flat, and industrial silicon prices fell, resulting in a weakening of production costs. In April 2025, the polysilicon production volume was 98,800 tons [62][67].
工业硅多晶硅市场周报：双硅需求难有起色，库存依旧压制价格-20250523
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-23 09:42