股指期货周报「2025.5.23」-20250523

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - A - share major indices fluctuated this week, with all recording slight declines except for the Small - and - Mid - Cap 100. The four stock index futures showed divergence, with large - cap blue - chip stocks outperforming small - and - mid - cap stocks. The domestic economic data for April announced on Monday was weaker than before, pressuring the market. The market sentiment was briefly repaired on Tuesday and Wednesday with the LPR cut, but due to the lack of further catalysts, the market started to correct on Thursday, and stock indices collectively dropped significantly in the afternoon on Friday. Market trading activity declined slightly compared to last week. Currently, the domestic economic fundamentals are slightly weakening, which has a negative impact on market sentiment. Although macro - support policies have been introduced, it is necessary to wait for the policy effects to materialize. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [6][83]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures: The weekly percentage changes of IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 were 0.01%, - 0.08%, - 0.71%, and - 1.04% respectively, and the Friday percentage changes were - 0.88%, - 0.82%, - 0.95%, and - 1.03% respectively. Their closing prices were 3846.2, 2693.0, 5561.8, and 5872.0 respectively [10]. - Spot: The weekly percentage changes of the CSI 300 and SSE 50 were - 0.18%, the Friday percentage changes were - 0.81% and - 0.80% respectively, and their closing prices were 3882.27 and 2711.85 respectively. The weekly percentage change of the CSI 500 was - 1.10%, the Friday percentage change was - 0.88%, and the closing price was 5653.04. The weekly percentage change of the CSI 1000 was - 1.29%, the Friday percentage change was - 1.26%, and the closing price was 5989.68 [10]. 3.2 News Overview - Economic data: In April, the year - on - year actual growth of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 6.1%, and the month - on - month growth was 0.22%. From January to April, the year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4.0%, and the month - on - month growth in April was 0.10%. In April, the year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 5.1%, and from January to April, it was 4.7%. From January to April, real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year, and new commercial housing sales area and sales volume decreased by 2.8% and 3.2% respectively. The average urban surveyed unemployment rate from January to April was 5.2%, and in April, it was 5.1%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [13]. - Policy news: On May 20, 2025, the 1 - year LPR was 3.00%, and the 5 - year - plus LPR was 3.50%, both down 10 basis points from the previous period. Eight departments including the Financial Regulatory Administration jointly issued measures to support small and micro - enterprise financing. The CSRC will optimize the domestic listing environment for technology companies and implement a more flexible and precise new - share issuance counter - cyclical adjustment mechanism [14]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - Domestic main indices: The weekly percentage changes of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, STAR 50, Small - and - Mid - Cap 100, and ChiNext Index were - 0.57%, - 0.46%, - 1.47%, 0.62%, and - 0.88% respectively, and the Friday percentage changes were - 0.94%, - 0.85%, - 1.02%, - 0.42%, and - 1.18% respectively [17]. - Overseas main indices (as of Thursday): The weekly percentage changes of the S&P 500, FTSE 100, Hang Seng Index, and Nikkei 225 were - 1.95%, 0.63%, 1.10%, and - 1.57% respectively, and the Thursday percentage changes were - 0.04%, - 0.54%, 0.24%, and 0.47% respectively [18]. - Industry sector performance: Most industry sectors declined. The computer, machinery and equipment sectors had relatively large declines, while the pharmaceutical and biological, and comprehensive sectors led the gains. Industry main funds generally showed net outflows, with large net outflows in the computer and machinery and equipment sectors [21][25]. - SHIBOR short - term interest rates: They first declined and then rose, and the capital market remained loose [29]. - Restricted share lifting and northbound capital transactions: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 5.296 billion yuan in the secondary market, the market value of restricted share lifting was 22.765 billion yuan, and northbound capital had a total trading volume of 501.203 billion yuan [30]. - Futures basis and net positions: The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all fluctuated. The data on the net positions of the top 20, top 10, and top 5 of IF, IH, IC, and IM were also presented [38][41][46][50]. - Options data: Data on the trading volume distribution, open - interest distribution, trading and open - interest PCR, implied volatility, and historical volatility of CSI 300 options and CSI 1000 options were provided [63][74]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term due to the slightly weakening domestic economic fundamentals and the lack of immediate policy effects. It is recommended to wait and see [83].