碳酸锂市场周报：供给偏多预期尚弱，碳酸锂或承压运行-20250523

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be under pressure due to a relatively weak fundamental situation, with oversupply and high inventory levels that require more time to digest. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a weak and volatile manner, while controlling risks by paying attention to trading rhythms [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - Market Performance: The weekly line of the lithium carbonate main contract showed a weak and volatile trend. As of the close, the weekly change was -1.36%, with an amplitude of 4.37%. The main contract was priced at 60,960 yuan/ton [5]. - Macroeconomic Situation: Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met with Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, indicating that China welcomes US - funded enterprises to deepen mutually beneficial cooperation with China and promote the healthy, stable, and sustainable development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [5]. - Raw Material End: Overseas lithium miners still have the intention to support prices, but they are forced to lower ore prices due to the pressure from the weak industrial fundamentals [5]. - Supply End: Due to the recent continuous weak operation of spot prices, upstream smelters have successively planned production cuts and maintenance due to cost - profit issues, and the growth rate of the overall supply volume may slow down [5]. - Demand End: The demand growth of downstream battery material factories is limited. Currently, most production is carried out in the customer - supply mode, and the attitude towards external procurement is cautious and wait - and - see, resulting in a light trading situation in the spot market. The overall expectation of the lithium carbonate industry remains pessimistic [5]. - Inventory Situation: The cumulative speed of the total industrial inventory has slowed down. The upstream still maintains a rapid inventory accumulation trend, while the downstream and traders show inventory reduction. Currently, most spot transactions occur between them [5]. - Strategy Suggestion: Trade with a light position in a weak and volatile manner, and pay attention to trading rhythms to control risks [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: As of May 23, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 60,960 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 840 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread of lithium carbonate was - 1,320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 460 yuan/ton [10]. - Spot Price: As of May 23, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,450 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 2,090 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 610 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3 Upstream Market - Lithium Spodumene: As of May 23, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 735 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 18 US dollars/ton. As of the latest data of this week, the spot exchange rate of US dollars against RMB was 7.204, with a week - on - week decline of 0.13% [19]. - Lithium Mica: As of May 23, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 1,720 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 91 yuan/ton [24]. - Phosphorus Lithium Alumite: As of May 23, 2025, the average price of phosphorus lithium alumite was 7,050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 290 yuan/ton [24]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Supply Side: According to customs statistics, as of April 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 28,335.89 tons, an increase of 10,210.4 tons compared with March, a growth rate of 56.33%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 33.63%. The monthly export volume was 734.289 tons, an increase of 514.26 tons compared with March, a growth rate of 233.72%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 112.99%. According to CBC statistics, as of April 2025, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 47,900 tons, an increase of 4,720 tons compared with March, a growth rate of 10.93%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 2.68%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decline of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 32% [29]. - Demand Side - Hexafluorophosphate Lithium: As of May 23, 2025, the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium was 54,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 yuan/ton. According to CBC statistics, as of April 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 160,900 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with March, a growth rate of 2.55%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 34.96% [32]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: As of the latest data of this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 31,500 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week. According to CBC statistics, as of April 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 196,600 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons compared with March, a growth rate of 10.08%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 19.73%. The monthly operating rate was 47%, a month - on - month decline of 10% and a year - on - year decline of 8% [35]. - Ternary Materials: According to CBC statistics, as of April 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 62,500 tons, an increase of 8,450 tons compared with March, a growth rate of 15.63%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 15.53%. The monthly operating rate was 53%, a month - on - month increase of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 4%. As of the latest data of this week, the prices of ternary materials 811 type, 622 type, and 523 type continued to weaken [40]. - Lithium Manganate: According to CBC statistics, as of April 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,500 tons, an increase of 830 tons compared with March, a growth rate of 8.58%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 46.65%. As of the latest data of this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 29,000 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week [44]. - Lithium Cobaltate: According to CBC statistics, as of April 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 11,800 tons, an increase of 4,630 tons compared with March, a growth rate of 64.57%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 66.2%. As of the latest data of this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 220,000 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week [49]. - Application Side - New Energy Vehicles: According to China Association of Automobile Manufacturers data, as of April 2025, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles/total cumulative sales of vehicles (penetration rate) was 42.74%, a month - on - month increase of 1.58% and a year - on - year increase of 10.36%. The monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,251,000 units, a month - on - month decline of 2.04%; the sales volume was 1,226,000 units, a month - on - month decline of 0.89%. The cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 642,000 units, a year - on - year growth rate of 52.49% [51][56]. 3.5 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.15, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and combined with the fundamental situation, it is recommended to go long on volatility by constructing a long straddle option [59].