沿着消费政策发力方向探讨内需空间

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The 2025 Government Work Report prioritizes "vigorously boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand" as a key task, emphasizing the implementation of special actions to stimulate consumption [4][15] - The report discusses the immediate effects of consumption vouchers on service consumption, the long-term impact of fertility policies, and the potential for inbound tourism to enhance domestic demand [4][19] Summary by Sections 1. Policy Direction: Exploring Domestic Demand - The report highlights that boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand is the top priority, especially in the context of increasing global economic uncertainty [15] - It outlines various policies aimed at increasing income for low- and middle-income groups and enhancing service consumption [15][20] 2. Policy Impact: Immediate and Long-term Effects - Consumption vouchers have a multiplier effect, with restaurant vouchers showing a multiplier of approximately 4.2, while hotel and scenic area vouchers have a more significant impact [4][22][29] - Strong direct financial support is expected to help improve fertility rates in the medium term, as evidenced by data from Tianmen City, where birth rates increased by 17% in 2024 [9][42][45] - The report notes that inbound tourism requires time to transition from quantity to quality, with a significant potential for tax refund shopping, estimating a long-term tax refund space of 80 billion yuan in China [10][11] 3. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Long-term Growth - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong product and brand momentum, such as Laopu Gold, Juzi Bio, and Huazhu Group, as well as companies with high valuation efficiency like Miniso [11] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies that could benefit from policy-driven long-term growth, including China Duty Free and Wangfujing [11]