摩根大通|中国峰会正处于消费转型的临界点？

Group 1: Economic Context - China's consumption currently accounts for just 40% of GDP, with a savings rate exceeding 30%[3] - Elevated household savings lead to industrial overcapacity and persistent trade surpluses, impacting global trade dynamics[3] - Greater domestic consumption is essential for China's economic resilience and should be a top policy priority[11] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - US-China negotiations emphasize the need for China to lift consumption to address trade imbalances[4] - Other countries are also pushing for China to increase domestic demand to avoid trade barriers due to excess capacity concerns[7] - The recent US/UK trade agreement includes provisions that may indirectly target China's manufacturing practices[8] Group 3: Investment Implications - The consumer and internet sectors in China are attractively valued, with EPS trends showing a solid upturn[16] - If policy support for consumption increases, both EPS growth and P/E multiples could re-rate significantly, starting from over 20% below the 10-year average[16] - Proactive support for consumption could lead to a slower pace of debt accumulation and easing deflation pressures in China[17]