原厂或停产 DDR4，DRAM 提前涨价

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [5] Core Insights - Since April, the shutdown of some original manufacturers' DDR4 production has triggered a "butterfly effect," leading to significant price increases for high-spec DDR4 chips. The prices of DDR4 SODIMM and server DDR4 RDIMM have also risen, while the supply of LPDDR4X remains tight, causing finished product prices to continue to rise. The shutdown of DDR4 production is expected to improve the supply landscape for DDR4, resulting in significant short-term price volatility. Additionally, manufacturers are shifting capacity to DDR5 and HBM, creating development opportunities for the DRAM industry chain [2][13][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Shutdown of DDR4 Production and Price Increases - Major manufacturers are reducing production capacity for older processes. As Samsung, Hynix, and others gradually stop DDR4 production, supply is rapidly contracting, prompting customers to increase inventory to hedge against price pressures. Prices are expected to rise seasonally in the second half of the year [14][15]. - The price of some DDR4 spot goods has surged significantly, with some prices increasing by over 50% in the past two weeks. For instance, the price of DDR4 4Gb eTT and DDR4 8Gb 3200 reached $0.70 and $2.00 respectively, with weekly increases of 27.27% and 25% [7][15]. 2. Opportunities in Memory Modules and DDR5 Penetration - As manufacturers gradually shift DDR4 production capacity to DDR5, the penetration rate of DDR5 is expected to rise quickly, benefiting the memory module industry chain. Memory interface chips are crucial for memory modules, enhancing data access speed and stability to meet the growing demand for high-performance and large-capacity memory from CPUs [8][20]. 3. Investment Suggestions - The simultaneous shutdown of DDR4 products by domestic and international manufacturers is likely to improve the supply landscape for niche DDR4 and accelerate the penetration of DDR5 products, presenting development opportunities for the DDR4 domestic industry chain and DDR5 industry chain. Recommended stocks include: 1) DDR4 chips: Zhaoyi Innovation; 2) DDR5 industry chain: Lanke Technology [9][24]. - With the rapid development of AI applications, there is a growing demand for HBM, suggesting a focus on the HBM industry chain. Relevant stocks include: Zhongwei Company, Northern Huachuang [25].