宏观深度：关税冲击、内需缓冲与政策应对

Group 1: Tariff Impact - The tariffs may lead to a GDP decline of 0.6-1.4 percentage points in 2025[2] - Exports to the US are expected to shrink by 40-80%, resulting in a 6-12% drop in overall exports[10] - Employment is projected to decrease by approximately 4.5 million jobs due to reduced exports[16] Group 2: Domestic Demand Buffer - In an optimistic scenario, domestic demand could offset about 1 percentage point of the growth gap[3] - Manufacturing investment is expected to decline by 2.0-3.5 percentage points due to tariff impacts[31] - Government consumption is anticipated to increase GDP by approximately 1 percentage point, driven by counter-cyclical policies[42] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - It is suggested to increase fiscal reserves by 800 billion yuan to counteract the growth gap[4] - Strengthening the stock and real estate markets is recommended to leverage wealth effects for economic circulation[4] - Accelerating supply-side reforms in the service sector is crucial to unlock potential[4]