Workflow
花旗：宁德时代-首次覆盖 H 股给予买入评级；向新能源解决方案提供商转型
03750CATL(03750)2025-05-25 14:09

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on CATL H-shares with a Buy rating and sets a target price of HK425.TheA−sharetargetpriceisraisedtoRmb391fromRmb362[1][5].CoreViewpoints−CATListransformingintoaleaderinnewenergytechnologyandsolutions,well−positionedtobenefitfromlong−termgrowthintheglobalelectricvehicle(EV)andenergystoragesystem(ESS)batterymarkets[1][5].−Despiteaslowdowninglobalbatterydemandgrowth,theeffectiveutilizationratiointhebatteryindustryisexpectedtoimproveduetoslowercapacityexpansion,withCATL′scapacityutilizationprojectedtoexceedtheindustryaverage[2][10].−TheimpactofUStariffsandgeopoliticalrisksonCATLisexpectedtobelimitedduetoitslowexposuretotheUSmarket[3][18].−MarginsintheESSbatterysegmentareanticipatedtoreboundinthelatterhalfof2025assalestooverseasmarketsincrease[4][20].SummarybySectionsAddressingInvestorConcerns−∗∗GlobalBatteryDemandGrowth∗∗:Expectedtoslowto25425. The A-share target price is raised to Rmb391 from Rmb362 [1][5]. Core Viewpoints - CATL is transforming into a leader in new energy technology and solutions, well-positioned to benefit from long-term growth in the global electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage system (ESS) battery markets [1][5]. - Despite a slowdown in global battery demand growth, the effective utilization ratio in the battery industry is expected to improve due to slower capacity expansion, with CATL's capacity utilization projected to exceed the industry average [2][10]. - The impact of US tariffs and geopolitical risks on CATL is expected to be limited due to its low exposure to the US market [3][18]. - Margins in the ESS battery segment are anticipated to rebound in the latter half of 2025 as sales to overseas markets increase [4][20]. Summary by Sections Addressing Investor Concerns - **Global Battery Demand Growth**: Expected to slow to 25% in 2025 and 26% in 2026, down from 40% in 2023 and 30% in 2024. The global battery effective utilization ratio is projected to rise to 58%/59% in 2025/26 from 57% in 2024 [2][10]. - **Impact of US Tariffs**: CATL's battery shipments to the US fell to 2-3% of total shipments in 1Q25, indicating limited exposure and impact from tariffs [3][18]. - **Unit GP and EBIT Pressure**: CATL's margins are expected to recover in 2-4Q25E with an increase in overseas sales, which typically have higher margins [4][20]. Company Description - CATL is the largest battery producer globally, specializing in rechargeable lithium-ion batteries for EVs and ESS, with a sales volume of 381GWh for EVs and 93GWh for ESS in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19% and 35% respectively [41]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes CATL's strategic positioning in the new energy sector and its potential to capitalize on the growing demand for EVs and ESS, reinforcing its status as a top pick in the battery supply chain [5][29]. Valuation - The target price for CATL A-shares is set at Rmb391, based on a 16.6x EV/EBITDA for 2025, while the H-share target price of HK425 implies a 28.2x P/E for 2025 and 22.4x for 2026 [5][29].