摩根士丹利-关键预测研究

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on US stocks, Treasuries, and US Investment Grade Corporate Credit, emphasizing a focus on quality assets [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant structural shock to the global trading order due to the broad imposition of tariffs by the US, leading to a forecasted slowdown in global growth from 3.5% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025 [2][7]. - The US economy is expected to experience a decline in real GDP growth from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026, with asymmetric risks associated with the trade shock [2][12]. - Despite the slowdown, risky assets may perform well, and treasuries are expected to rally due to anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 [2][3]. Economic Outlook - Global growth is projected to slow, with the US facing additional drags from immigration restrictions and tariffs impacting demand and supply [7][12]. - The euro area is expected to see a decline in exports and investment due to tariffs, while China's demand shock is only partially mitigated by modest policy stimulus [7][12]. - Japan's nominal GDP reflation remains intact, but global economic slowdown is expected to weigh on exports and investment [7]. Sector Recommendations - In the US, the report favors quality cyclicals, large caps, and defensives with lower leverage and cheaper valuations [5]. - Key sectors recommended for Europe include defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials, with a cautious stance on cyclical exporters [5]. - Emerging markets are favored towards financials and profitability leaders, with a preference for domestic-focused businesses over exporters [5]. Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for major indices, with the S&P 500 expected to reach a price target of 6,500 by June 2026, reflecting a year-over-year EPS growth of 7% in 2025 and 9% in 2026 [6]. - The MSCI Europe index is projected to have a price target of 2,250, with modest EPS growth of 1.3% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026 [6]. Currency and Commodities Outlook - The report anticipates a significant depreciation of the USD due to fading growth and yield differentials compared to the rest of the world [3][15]. - Oil prices are expected to face downward pressure due to potential supply increases, leading to a reduction in Brent forecasts by $5-10 per barrel [17]. - Gold is highlighted as a top pick due to strong central bank demand and safe-haven appeal amid growth concerns [19].