瑞银：中国经济透视_4月经济同比增长放缓，关税冲击开始兑现

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the GDP growth forecast for China in 2025 to 4% from a previous estimate of 3.4% due to improved trade relations and expected policy support [3][26]. Core Insights - The easing of US-China trade tensions is expected to reduce the impact of tariffs on China's GDP growth by 1-1.5 percentage points, compared to over 2 percentage points before the easing [2][23]. - Despite a slowdown in economic activity in April, industrial production and exports exceeded expectations, with industrial production growth slowing to 6.1% year-on-year [1][13]. - Retail sales growth in April was 5.1%, supported by strong sales in home appliances and communication equipment due to ongoing subsidy policies [1][6]. Economic Overview - In April, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial value added was 6.1%, down from 7.7% in March, influenced by high base effects [5][13]. - Social retail sales growth slowed to 5.1% in April, with significant contributions from home appliances and furniture sales [1][6]. - Fixed asset investment growth decreased to 3.6% in April, with infrastructure investment slowing to 9.6% [11][12]. Trade Performance - April exports grew by 8.1%, with a notable 21% decline in exports to the US, while exports to ASEAN countries surged by 20.7% [12][23]. - Imports in April saw a slight decline of 0.2%, better than the 4.4% drop in March [12][15]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained weak, with a year-on-year decline of 0.1% in April, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a further decline of 2.7% [18][21]. - Monetary easing measures have been implemented, including a reduction in policy interest rates and reserve requirements, with expectations for further rate cuts in 2025 [24][25]. Future Focus - The ongoing US-China trade negotiations are critical, with potential impacts on global growth and trade dynamics [27]. - The report highlights the need for the government to enhance policies to stabilize the real estate market, which continues to show signs of weakness [27].