瑞银：中国股票策略-香港IPO复苏的影响

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive view on H-shares, indicating a favorable investment outlook for this sector [1]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong IPO market has seen a revival with a total amount raised year-to-date at US$9 billion, reflecting a 320% year-on-year increase, although still below the peak of 2020 [1]. - Newly listed companies have delivered an average return of 18% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Index (HSI) by 13% [1]. - Factors contributing to this outperformance include improved quality of listed companies, tighter IPO restrictions in mainland China, enhanced liquidity in Hong Kong, and increased foreign investor appetite for core Chinese assets [1]. - The A-H premium currently stands at 33%, which is around the 10-year average but below the recent five-year average, with potential for narrowing in the near term due to easing geopolitical tensions and improved liquidity [2]. - Passive inflows into large Hong Kong IPOs are expected to benefit blue-chip A-share companies listed in Hong Kong, with estimated funds under management for HSTECH and MSCI China-based ETFs at approximately US$24 billion and US$12 billion, respectively [3]. - Despite significant IPO activity, total equity raisings in Hong Kong are dwarfed by US$53 billion of southbound inflows year-to-date, indicating strong demand for H-shares [4]. Summary by Sections Hong Kong IPO Market - The total amount raised in the Hong Kong IPO market year-to-date is US$9 billion, a 320% increase year-on-year, with an average return of 18% [1]. - The quality and vintage of companies listed have improved, contributing to the strong performance of IPOs [1]. A-H Premium Analysis - The A-H premium is currently at 33%, with potential for narrowing due to various factors including geopolitical easing and increased foreign inflows [2]. Passive Inflows and Market Dynamics - Blue-chip A-share companies listed in Hong Kong are expected to benefit from passive inflows, with significant funds under management in relevant ETFs [3]. - Southbound inflows significantly exceed equity raisings, highlighting the attractiveness of H-shares [4].