汇丰：中国网络安全-仍面临艰难时期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating on DBAPP and a Hold rating on QAX and Venustech [3][5][9] Core Insights - The demand recovery in the cybersecurity sector remains muted, but there are signs of improvement in emerging subsectors such as data security, cloud security, and managed security services (MSS) [3][9] - DBAPP's 1Q25 revenue grew by 11% year-on-year, with a net loss narrowing by 44% year-on-year, driven by strong demand in emerging security subsectors and effective expense control [3][12] - QAX and Venustech experienced continued revenue contraction in 1Q25 due to weak overall cybersecurity spending [3][4] Summary by Sections Company Performance - DBAPP's 1Q25 revenue growth of 11% year-on-year was supported by a 40% year-on-year increase in the contract value of new data security products, with API security and network data loss prevention growing by 200% and 150% year-on-year, respectively [12][13] - QAX's 1Q25 revenue declined by 3% year-on-year, reflecting a muted recovery in downstream cybersecurity spending [43] Earnings Estimates - Revenue estimates for DBAPP for 2025-26 have been revised upward by 1-3%, while earnings estimates have been lowered due to higher headcount reduction expenses [4][16] - QAX and Venustech's revenue estimates for 2025-26 have been lowered due to cautious views on overall cybersecurity spending [4][45] Valuation and Target Prices - The target price for DBAPP has been lowered to RMB71.00 from RMB83.00, while target prices for QAX and Venustech have been reduced to RMB32.80 and RMB15.00, respectively [5][9][28] - DBAPP is currently trading at a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 1.9x for 2026 estimates, compared to a peer average of 4.1x [5][30] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that accelerated cloud and AI adoption will boost demand for data security, cloud security, and managed security services [3][9] - DBAPP is expected to achieve a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% from 2024 to 2027, with net profit projected to grow significantly in 2027 [17][30]