瑞银：全球石油、天然气及炼油市场展望

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the global oil and gas industry, indicating a bullish sentiment towards oil prices and market conditions [3][4]. Core Insights - The report forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $65.99 per barrel in 2025, with a gradual increase to $75.00 by 2028 [3]. - Global oil demand is expected to grow by 0.7 million barrels per day (Mb/d) in 2025 and 0.8 Mb/d in 2026, with a projected peak before a moderate decline [31][34]. - Supply growth is anticipated at 1.4 Mb/d in 2025, primarily driven by non-OPEC+ countries, with a slowdown in US supply growth expected [65][111]. Summary by Sections Global Oil Market Outlook - The global oil market is projected to remain balanced, with a surplus expected in 2025 and 2026 [22]. - Demand growth is primarily driven by regions such as the US and China, while other OECD countries show slower growth [28][31]. Price Forecasts - The report outlines a detailed price forecast for Brent and WTI crude oil, with Brent prices expected to be $74.97 in Q1 2025 and $62.00 in Q3 and Q4 2025 [3]. Supply and Demand Balance - The quarterly global oil supply and demand balance indicates a slight surplus, with demand expected to outpace supply in the near term [27][22]. - The report highlights that OPEC+ compliance and geopolitical tensions will significantly impact supply dynamics [78][92]. Demand by Region - Global oil demand is projected to expand across various regions, with significant contributions from China and the US, while other regions may experience stagnation [28][31]. Impact of Electric Vehicles (EVs) - The penetration of EVs is expected to displace approximately 9 Mb/d of oil demand by 2040, significantly impacting traditional oil consumption patterns [49][53]. US Supply Dynamics - US crude oil production growth is forecasted to slow, with an increase of only 0.4 Mb/d in 2025, influenced by declining rig counts and drilling activity [111][115]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran, Libya, and Venezuela, pose risks to oil supply stability, which could affect global prices and availability [92][94].