花旗：石油监测-美以伊风险再度上升，美俄乌谈判遇阻，地缘政治二元风险备受关注

Investment Rating - The report maintains a skewed downside view for Brent crude oil prices, projecting a range of $50 to $70, with a specific focus on a $60 target over the next 0-3 months [1][4]. Core Insights - Geopolitical factors are critical in determining the next movements in oil prices, with significant developments in US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine relations influencing market sentiment [1][2]. - Recent reports suggest that Israel may be planning an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, which could lead to a bullish scenario for oil prices if US-Iran negotiations fail [3][4]. - The report highlights the ongoing erosion of Chinese purchases of Iranian oil due to increased US sanctions, leading to a buildup of floating storage off the coast of China [4]. Summary by Sections Geopolitical Risks - The report emphasizes the binary nature of geopolitical risks, with potential outcomes swinging oil prices between $50 and $70 [1]. - The US has extended a waiver for Chevron to operate in Venezuela, which adds complexity to the geopolitical landscape [1]. Market Dynamics - Brent crude oil has been trading in a range of $60 to $66 in May, influenced by tariffs and geopolitical events [2]. - A recent OPEC+ decision to unwind supply has contributed to market volatility, with oil prices reacting to US-China trade optimism and US-Iran negotiations [2][4]. Inventory and Demand - US commercial crude inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels week-over-week to 443.2 million barrels, which was more bearish than expected [9]. - Gasoline inventories increased by 0.8 million barrels to 225.5 million barrels, indicating a bearish trend against surveyed expectations [11]. - Diesel inventories also rose by 0.6 million barrels to 104.1 million barrels, further reflecting bearish market conditions [10]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates another OPEC+ meeting in June to assess supply levels, with expectations that they may hold current levels flat through the second half of 2025 [7]. - The upcoming summer driving season in the US may influence gasoline demand, with current prices lower than the previous year, potentially affecting consumer sentiment [11].