Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are currently fluctuating around 78,000 yuan, with the current fundamentals and macro - environment strongly supporting electrolytic copper. Aluminum prices are expected to rebound with inventory reduction, and long - short spreads in the month can be held if the absolute price drops. Zinc prices are oscillating, and it is recommended to short at high prices and partially take profit on long - short spreads. Nickel - stainless steel ratio contraction opportunities can be continuously monitored. Stainless steel is expected to oscillate in the short term. Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 16,900 yuan next week. Tin is recommended to be observed in the short term and high - short opportunities should be monitored in the long term. Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long term. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - long term and decline after oscillation next week [1][2][3][6][8][10][11] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market Data: From May 19 - 23, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 35, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 40, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1,652 [1] - Supply: Due to the earthquake in the Kamoa mining area, some mining areas stopped production, which may affect this year's output. The Manyer smelter in Indonesia will start feeding and resuming production in early June, which may improve the shortage of electrolytic copper premiums in Southeast Asia but have an adverse impact on domestic TC [1] - Demand: The consumption of domestic electrolytic copper shows resilience. The State Grid has issued the second batch of tenders this year, and the cable consumption and orders in the remaining time of the second quarter are expected to be strong. However, the consumption of several sectors shows a weakening trend [1] Aluminum - Market Data: From May 19 - 23, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 10 yuan, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price increased by 20 yuan, and the domestic alumina price increased by 59 yuan [1] - Supply and Demand: Supply has increased slightly, and the import of aluminum ingots from January to April was large. The demand from May to June is not expected to decline significantly, and there is still a supply - demand gap. The inventory is expected to be slowly reduced from May to July [1] Zinc - Market Data: From May 19 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 10, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 60, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,725 [2] - Supply and Demand: Supply: Domestic TC and imported TC remained unchanged this week, and the smelting maintenance in May decreased slightly compared with the previous month. Demand: Domestic demand has limited elasticity, and overseas demand has slightly recovered. The domestic social inventory is slowly increasing, and the inflection point of accelerated inventory accumulation is expected to appear in early June [2] Nickel - Market Data: From May 19 - 23, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 150 [3] - Supply and Demand: Supply: The production of pure nickel remains at a high level, and the import of Russian nickel increased in April. Demand: Overall demand is weak. Inventory: Overseas nickel plate inventory has slightly increased, and domestic inventory remains stable [3] Stainless Steel - Market Data: From May 19 - 23, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of 201 cold - rolled coil decreased by 100 [6] - Supply and Demand: Supply: Production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. Demand: It is mainly driven by rigid demand. Cost: The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable. Inventory: The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has slightly increased [6] Lead - Market Data: From May 19 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 30, and the LME lead inventory increased by 47,675 [7][8] - Supply and Demand: Supply: The scrap volume is weak year - on - year. Middle - stream recycling smelters have concentrated production capacity, and the demand for waste batteries is tight. Demand: Battery export orders have slightly declined, and overall demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 16,900 yuan next week [8] Tin - Market Data: From May 19 - 23, the spot import profit decreased by 3,040.30, and the LME tin inventory remained unchanged [10] - Supply and Demand: Supply: The short - term resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State requires negotiation. The domestic Jiangxi region has partially cut production, and the Yunnan region is struggling to maintain production. Demand: The elasticity of solder consumption is limited, and the downstream lacks the motivation to further destock. It is recommended to observe in the short term and monitor high - short opportunities in the long term [10] Industrial Silicon - Market Data: From May 19 - 23, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 35, and the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 35 [11] - Supply and Demand: Supply: The overall start - up has slightly increased. Demand: The demand for silicone and polysilicon is declining. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and social inventory has started to be reduced. In the long term, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [11] Lithium Carbonate - Market Data: From May 19 - 23, the SMM electric carbon price remained unchanged, and the SMM industrial carbon price remained unchanged [11] - Supply and Demand: Supply: The production lines of Tianqi and Yahua have resumed work, and small recycling plants have intensified production cuts. Demand: Downstream demand is weak, and the demand improvement by policies is less than expected. In the medium - long term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly and decline after oscillation next week [11]
有色早报-20250526
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-05-26 01:24