大越期货玻璃早报-20250526

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate with a weak and volatile trend at a low level. The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level compared to the same period. Affected by the expectation of the seasonal peak season, the spot price has increased, and the downstream has carried out phased replenishment, leading to a reduction in glass factory inventories. It is expected that glass will mainly operate with a strong and volatile trend at a low level [2][5]. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract was 1000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.77% from the previous value. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - sized glass was 1084 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74% from the previous value. The main basis was 84 yuan/ton, an increase of 44.83% from the previous value [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - sized boards in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark location, was 1084 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Fundamental - Cost Side - The profit feedback in glass production is obvious. The coal production line's profitability has recovered, the loss of the natural gas production line has narrowed, and the profit of the petroleum coke production line has turned negative [3][17]. Fundamental - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines nationwide is 223, with an operating rate of 75.34%. The glass production line operation number is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting capacity of float glass is 156,700 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history [21][23]. Fundamental - Demand - In February 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.3143 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital recovery in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the original glass inventory [27][4]. Fundamental - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 67.769 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.46% from the previous week, and the inventory is operating above the five - year average [2][42]. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in glass production, imports, exports, apparent supply, consumption, and other data over the years. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, the apparent supply is 54.61 million tons, and the consumption is 53.1 million tons [43]. Influencing Factors - Likely to be Bullish: The negative feedback on production profit is obvious, and the glass output has continuously declined to a historical low. The Sino - US tariff negotiation has made progress [3]. - Likely to be Bearish: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital recovery in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the original glass inventory [4]. Main Logic and Risk Points - Main Logic: The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level compared to the same period. Affected by the expectation of the seasonal peak season, the spot price has increased, and the downstream has carried out phased replenishment, leading to a reduction in glass factory inventories. It is expected that glass will mainly operate with a strong and volatile trend at a low level [5]. - Risk Points: The industry's resumption of production accelerates, and the macro and real - estate policies fall short of expectations [5].