大越期货尿素早报-20250526

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The urea futures market is expected to show a volatile trend today. The fundamentals are generally neutral, with high supply and mixed demand. After the export policy is implemented, the price lacks upward momentum and tends to stabilize [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures price rebounded and then oscillated downward. Supply is high with new installations and high开工率 and daily production. Inventory is short - term volatile. Industrial demand shows a decline in compound fertilizer开工率 and high melamine开工率, while agricultural demand is short - term weak. International prices are strong, but export is restricted by policies. The spot price of the delivery product is 1880 (unchanged) [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 31, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.6%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.05 million tons (+100,000 tons), a bearish factor [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a neutral situation [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the UR main contract is increasing, a bullish sign [4]. - Expectation: The main contract of urea is expected to oscillate. High daily production, short - term inventory decline, improving agricultural demand, and stable prices after the export policy implementation are the main factors [4]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production, net import volume, apparent consumption, and actual consumption also show certain trends of change. For example, in 2024, the production capacity was 4418.5, with a growth rate of 13.5%, and the production was 3425 [10].