大越期货纯碱周报2025.5.19-5.23-20250526

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures continued to weaken in a volatile manner. The closing price of the main contract SA2509 decreased by 2.79% compared to the previous week, reaching 1253 yuan/ton. The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1300 yuan/ton, down 1.52% from the previous week. Supply is expected to increase slightly in the near term, while demand from downstream float and photovoltaic glass is average with low raw material reserve intention. With supply declining from a high level and weak demand, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Soda Ash Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1289 yuan/ton to 1253 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.79%. The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped from 1320 yuan/ton to 1300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.52%. The main basis increased by 51.61% from 31 yuan/ton to 47 yuan/ton [8]. 2. Soda Ash Spot Market Conditions - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash using the dual - alkali process in East China was 188 yuan/ton, while the profit of heavy soda ash using the ammonia - alkali process in North China was - 14.60 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [17]. - 开工率、产能产量: The weekly industry operating rate was 78.63% and is expected to stabilize and rebound. The weekly output was 67.38 tons, with heavy soda ash accounting for 36 tons, declining from a historical high. The weekly production heavy - soda ratio was 54.23% [21][23][26]. - Industry Capacity Changes: In 2023, the newly - added capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons. The planned newly - added capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual production of 60 tons [27]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Sales - to - Production Ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 105.30% [30]. - Downstream Demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.67 tons, and the operating rate of 75.34% continued to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the output stabilized [33][36]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 167.68 tons, including 84.40 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historically high level for the same period [39]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [40]. 6. Influencing Factors Summary - Positive Factors: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [5]. - Negative Factors: The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, the improvement of terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory is continuously decreasing, it is still at a high level for the same period. The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [6].