大越期货甲醇周报-20250526

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The domestic methanol market declined significantly this week. In the inland market, after the positive effects of the easing of Sino - US trade relations weakened, the market sentiment returned to rationality. Although some CTO plants in Ningxia continued to purchase methanol, the traditional downstream entered the off - season, and the operating rates of downstream products like MTBE decreased. With high - profit incentives, the inland methanol plants had high operating enthusiasm, leading to an obvious supply - demand contradiction. Traders were less motivated to purchase, and methanol plants in production areas accumulated inventory and continuously cut prices. In the port market, both futures and spot prices dropped sharply. After the market digested the macro - sentiment and the crude oil price fell significantly, although the restart of an olefin plant in Lianyungang increased demand, the concentrated arrival of ships in the second half of the month led to inventory accumulation, and the basis of port methanol weakened [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Review The domestic methanol market as a whole declined significantly this week. Inland market: After the positive effects of Sino - US trade relations weakened, the market sentiment became rational. Traditional downstream entered the off - season, and downstream product profitability was difficult, leading to a decline in operating rates. High - profit - driven high inland methanol production enthusiasm led to supply - demand contradictions, inventory accumulation in production areas, and price cuts. In the port market: Futures and spot prices dropped in tandem. After the digestion of macro - sentiment and a sharp decline in crude oil prices, although the restart of an olefin plant increased demand, inventory accumulation due to concentrated ship arrivals and a lack of positive fundamental drivers led to a weakening of the methanol basis [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - Domestic Methanol Spot Price: The prices in regions such as Jiangsu, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Fujian all decreased, with a decline of 3.58% in Jiangsu [6]. - Methanol Basis: The basis in Jiangsu weakened, with a weekly decline of 23 yuan/ton [8]. - Methanol Production Profits by Process: Coal - based production profits decreased by 98 yuan/ton, natural - gas - based production profits remained unchanged, and coke - oven - gas - based production profits increased by 328 yuan/ton [10]. - Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load: The national load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and the load in the northwest decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [12]. - External Methanol Prices and Spreads: CFR China prices decreased by 1.92% to 256 US dollars/ton, CFR Southeast Asia prices decreased by 1.50% to 327.5 US dollars/ton, and the spread remained unchanged [15]. - Methanol Import Spreads: The import cost decreased by 1.86%, and the import spread decreased by 42 yuan/ton [18]. - Traditional Downstream Product Prices of Methanol: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged [22]. - Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products: Formaldehyde production profits increased by 24 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.90%; dimethyl ether production profits increased by 78 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.82%; acetic acid production profits increased by 47 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.94% [26][28][33]. - MTO Production Profits and Loads: MTO production profits increased by 272 yuan/ton, and the load decreased slightly [37]. - Methanol Port Inventory: The inventory in East China increased by 1.31 to 23.11, and the inventory in South China decreased by 0.94 to 16.27 [38]. - Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts: Warehouse receipts decreased by 37.76% to 5997, and effective forecasts decreased by 100% to 0 [40]. 3.3 Maintenance Status - Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance: Multiple domestic methanol production enterprises in regions such as the Northwest, East China, Southwest, and Northeast are in maintenance, with varying maintenance periods and loss volumes [42]. - Foreign Methanol Device Operation: Some foreign methanol production enterprises in countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States have different operating conditions, including normal operation, restart, and maintenance [43]. - Olefin Device Operation: Some domestic olefin production enterprises in regions such as the Northwest, East China, and Central China have different operating conditions, including normal operation, maintenance, and parking [44].