多空交织，豆粕维持震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors, including the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations, US soybean planting weather, and the arrival of imported soybeans [10][11][13]. - The soybean market will also be in an oscillatory pattern, influenced by Sino - US trade relations, South American soybean harvests, and domestic supply - demand dynamics [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Hints Not explicitly presented in the provided content. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations reached a short - term agreement, which is positive for US soybeans. However, good planting weather in the US led to a short - term pull - back in the US soybean market. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean planting, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, domestic soybean inventories rebounded from a low level, while soybean meal inventories remained low. The soybean and soybean meal markets returned to an oscillatory pattern due to the outcome of the Sino - US tariff war [13]. - Reduced profits in domestic pig farming led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but tight supply supported post - holiday price expectations. With reduced pressure from the Sino - US tariff war, soybean meal entered a short - term oscillatory and weakening pattern [13]. - Low domestic soybean meal inventories supported short - term price expectations. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war meant that soybean meal would remain volatile in the short - term, awaiting clarification of South American soybean yields and further developments in the Sino - US tariff war [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors For Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic soybean meal inventories at oil mills, and uncertainties in the US soybean - producing area weather [14]. - Bearish factors: high arrival volume of imported soybeans in May, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [14]. For Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support from imported soybeans and expected increased demand for domestic soybeans [15]. - Bearish factors: continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season [15]. 4. Fundamental Data Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides data from 2015 - 2024, showing trends in harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, indicating an overall upward trend in production and ending inventory over the years [22]. USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months Data from November 2024 to May 2025 shows changes in harvest area, yield, production, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing volume, and soybean production in Brazil and Argentina [23]. US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in 2024 It details the sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, leaf - falling, and harvesting progress from April to November, as well as the comparison of the excellent - good rate with the previous year and the five - year average [24][25][26]. Brazil's Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress in 2024/25 It shows the planting rate from November 2024 to January 2025 and the harvesting rate from February to May 2025, along with comparisons with the previous year and the five - year average [27][28]. Argentina's Soybean Planting Progress in 2024/25 The planting rate from November 2024 to January 2025 is presented, with comparisons to the previous year and the five - year average [29]. 5. Position Data Not explicitly presented in the provided content. 6. Trading Strategies For Soybean Meal - Futures: US soybeans are expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark in the short - term, and soybean meal will be oscillatory and weakening. For the M2509 contract, short - term trading within the range of 2800 - 3000 is recommended [17]. - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. For Soybeans (Bean 1) - Futures: The A2507 contract is expected to oscillate between 4100 and 4300, and short - term trading within this range is advised [20]. - Option strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [20]. 7. Next Week's Focus Points - Most important: US soybean - producing area planting weather, Sino - US trade relations and the follow - up of the tariff war, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [76][77]. - Second - most important: Domestic soybean meal demand, domestic oil mill inventories, and downstream procurement [78]. - Less important: Macroeconomic factors, the situations in the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts [78].