大越期货豆粕早报-20250526

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to trade in the range of 2900 - 2960, with the market influenced by factors such as Sino - US tariff negotiations, US soybean planting weather, and South American soybean production. The short - term outlook is neutral, with both upward and downward pressures [9]. - The soybean A2507 is expected to trade in the range of 4120 - 4220. The market is affected by factors like Sino - US tariff negotiations, South American soybean harvest, and domestic soybean supply and demand. The short - term outlook is also neutral [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations reached a short - term agreement, which is positive for US soybeans. However, good planting weather in the US soybean - growing areas has led to a short - term pull - back in US soybean prices. The market is waiting for further guidance on Sino - US tariff negotiations and US soybean planting weather [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, domestic soybean inventories rebounded from a low level, while soybean meal inventories remained low. The short - term outlook for soybeans and soybean meal is oscillatory, with a pattern of strong current situation and weak expectations [13]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but tight supply supports the post - holiday price. Due to the reduced pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, soybean meal is in a short - term oscillatory and weakening pattern [13]. - Low soybean meal inventories at domestic oil mills and strong spot prices support short - term price expectations. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - growing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war have led to short - term oscillations in soybean meal, waiting for clear information on South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low soybean meal inventories at domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in the US soybean - growing area weather [14]. - Bearish factors: High total arrival of imported soybeans in May, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Bearish factors: Continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans by China, and expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price in East China is 2890, with a basis of - 62, indicating a discount to the futures price. The inventory of soybean meal at oil mills is 12.17 million tons, a 20.26% increase from last week and an 80.47% decrease from the same period last year [9]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4180, with a basis of 8, indicating a premium to the futures price. The inventory of soybeans at oil mills is 586.83 million tons, a 9.71% increase from last week and a 33.95% increase from the same period last year [11]. 5. Position Data - Soybean Meal: The long positions of the main players increased, but the funds flowed out [9]. - Soybeans: The short positions of the main players increased, and the funds flowed out [11].