大越期货菜粕早报-20250526

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2500 - 2560. It was affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes, leading to a rise followed by a fall. Influenced by soybean meal, its price will return to range - bound oscillation in the short - term [9]. - The rapeseed meal futures market shows a relatively strong oscillation, while the spot market follows the weak trend of soybean meal, with the spot remaining at a discount [18]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrows from a high level, and the price difference of the 2509 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal maintains an oscillating trend [20]. - The import volume of rapeseed in May is lower than expected, and the import cost shows a relatively strong oscillation [25]. - The rapeseed inventory of oil mills continues to decline, while the rapeseed meal inventory rebounds from a low level [27]. - The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills rebounds to a relatively high level [29]. - The price of aquatic fish shows a slight increase, while the price of shrimp and shellfish remains stable [37]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints - No relevant content provided 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry is recovering from the off - season, with a tight supply and increasing demand in the spot market [11]. - The annual rapeseed production in Canada has slightly decreased, supporting the overseas futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with the future result uncertain [11]. - The global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU rapeseed production and the lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in rapeseed production in Ukraine and the increase in Russia relatively offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation of global geopolitical conflicts, which provides support for commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed after March; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply - demand balance sheets: The report provides the domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet and the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet from 2014 to 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [23][24] - Price and trading volume: The report shows the trading average price, trading volume, and price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal from May 14th to May 23rd, as well as the futures and spot prices of rapeseed meal during the same period [13][14] - Inventory: As of a certain period, the rapeseed meal inventory is 2.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.38% [9] 5. Position Data - No relevant content provided 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamentals: Rapeseed meal first rose and then fell, affected by soybean meal and technical oscillation. The low - level operation of oil mills and low inventory support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot is gradually increasing. Although the arrival volume of imported rapeseed increases, the short - term inventory of oil mills is not under pressure. The market will return to range - bound oscillation in the short - term. The tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the non - imposition of tariffs on rapeseed imports limits the positive impact [9]. - Basis: The spot price is 2500, with a basis of - 56, indicating a discount to the futures, which is a bearish factor [9]. - Inventory: The rapeseed meal inventory shows a decreasing trend, which is a bullish factor [9]. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is a bearish factor [9]. - Main positions: The main long positions are decreasing, and funds are flowing out, which is a bullish factor [9]. - Expectation: Rapeseed meal will return to range - bound oscillation in the short - term [9].