镍、不锈钢产业链周报-20250526

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: May 26, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints Bullish Factors - Tight supply of nickel ore in Indonesia due to the rainy season affecting shipping, leading to a slight increase in nickel ore prices and stronger cost support [3] - Rising ore prices drive up the cost center of integrated production lines, providing solid support at the lower end [3] Bearish Factors - Loosening marginal supply of pure nickel, combined with high overseas inventories and stable domestic inventories, increasing upward pressure [3] - Slow recovery of downstream stainless steel demand, limited support from the new energy sector, and continuous losses of nickel sulfate enterprises [3] Trading Advisory Viewpoint - Weak supply and demand fundamentals make it difficult for nickel prices to move up or down, maintaining a short - term oscillating pattern. It is recommended to focus on range - band operations and option strategies [3] Data Summary Nickel Futures - Prices: The closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts (main, continuous 1, 2, 3) decreased slightly, with weekly declines ranging from -0.10% to -0.21%. The LME nickel 3M price also dropped by -0.09% [4] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume decreased by 19.69% to 87,677 lots, and the open interest decreased by 25.3% to 47,440 lots [4] - Warehouse Receipts: The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 4.49% to 22,418 tons [4] - Basis: The basis of the main contract increased by 671.11% to -1,735 yuan/ton [4] Stainless Steel Futures - Prices: The closing prices of stainless steel futures contracts (main, continuous 1, 2, 3) showed mixed trends, with some contracts declining by -0.50% to -0.65% [4] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume decreased by 17.99% to 109,100 lots, and the open interest decreased by 8.93% to 117,183 lots [4] - Warehouse Receipts: The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 10.19% to 140,425 tons [4] - Basis: The basis of the main contract increased by 12.06% to 790 yuan/ton [4] Spot Nickel - The prices of different types of nickel (Jinchuan nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, electrowon nickel) showed minor fluctuations, with changes ranging from -0.04% to 0.04% [4] Inventory - Domestic Social Inventory: The domestic social inventory of nickel increased by 63 tons to 44,151 tons [4] - LME Nickel Inventory: The LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,274 tons to 198,636 tons [6] - Stainless Steel Social Inventory: The stainless steel social inventory decreased by 8.4 tons to 980.7 tons [6] - Nickel Pig Iron Inventory: The nickel pig iron inventory increased by 1,158 tons to 29,554.5 tons [6] Chart Information Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Prices - The report provides charts of the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures main contracts, LME nickel (3 - month) futures, and stainless steel futures main contracts over time [8][9] Nickel Supply and Inventory - Charts show the average price of nickel spot, China's refined nickel monthly production, total monthly supply of primary nickel (including imports), domestic social inventory of nickel (nickel plates + nickel beans), LME nickel inventory, price of Philippine laterite nickel ore (1.5% FOB), and China's port nickel ore inventory by port over time [11][12][13] Nickel Iron - Charts present the average price of high - nickel pig iron in Indonesia (Ni≥14%, arrival - tax - included), China's nickel iron monthly production, the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% nickel pig iron in China, and Indonesia's nickel pig iron monthly production over time [16][17][19] Downstream Nickel Sulfate - Charts display the profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the profit of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate in China, the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, the premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate, China's nickel sulfate monthly production, and the monthly production capacity of ternary precursors over time [21][23][24] Stainless Steel - Charts show the profit margin of China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils, stainless steel monthly production, and stainless steel inventory over time [26][27][29]