芳烃橡胶早报-20250526

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For PTA, polyester production has declined, bottle - chip processing fees remain low, TA has sufficient maintenance in the first half of the year and new production plans, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the processing fees of far - month TA [1] - For MEG, there are unexpected device problems in the near term, oil - based supply is reduced more than expected while demand has short - term resilience, and port inventory is expected to decrease significantly. Attention should be paid to the phased positive spread opportunity [1] - For polyester staple fiber, the efficiency is low, the supply is high, and the downstream profit is under pressure. The fundamental situation is difficult to improve significantly, but the processing fees on the disk have been compressed to a low level and are expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to subsequent production reduction actions [1] - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory has slightly decreased, the absolute level is not high, the price of Thai cup rubber has rebounded slightly, and the current strategy is to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs PTA - Market data: From May 19 - 23, 2025, the average daily trading basis of PTA spot was 2509(+154). The price of crude oil changed by 0.4, PX CFR by - 3, etc. [1] - Device changes: Zhongtai's 1.2 million - ton device restarted, Tongkun's 3 million - ton device was under maintenance, and Honggang's 2.5 million - ton device restarted [1] - Market situation: PTA plant operation rate increased, polyester operation rate decreased from a high level, inventory continued to decline, basis strengthened, and spot processing fees decreased but remained at a relatively high level; domestic PX operation rate increased, there were unexpected overseas maintenance, PXN slightly decreased, and the isomerization and disproportionation benefits weakened slightly, while the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia increased [1] MEG - Market data: From May 19 - 23, 2025, the negotiation price was around 4515 - 4532, and the basis was around 09(+110) [1] - Device changes: Sanjiang's 1 million - ton device restarted [1] - Market situation: The domestic oil - based operation rate decreased slightly, coal - based devices had both maintenance and restart, the operation rate decreased slightly, port inventory continued to decline due to less arrival, downstream inventory levels decreased, basis strengthened, and profits continued to increase [1] Polyester Staple Fiber - Market data: The spot price was around 6571, and the market basis was around 06 - 20 [1] - Device changes: Fujian Jinlun was under maintenance, and the operation rate decreased to 93.2% [1] - Market situation: Production and sales decreased month - on - month, inventory increased slightly, the operation rate of the polyester yarn end increased, raw material inventory decreased, finished product inventory increased month - on - month, and efficiency continued to weaken [1] Natural Rubber - Market data: From May 1 - 2, 2025, the prices of various types of natural rubber such as 20 - number rubber, US - dollar Thai mixed rubber, etc. showed different degrees of change [1] - Market situation: The national explicit inventory slightly decreased, the price of Thai cup rubber rebounded slightly, and the current strategy is to wait and see [1] Other Chemical Products (Ethylene, Pure Benzene, etc.) - Market data: From May 19 - 23, 2025, the prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, etc. changed to different extents, and the domestic profits of ABS, EPS, PS, etc. also changed [1] - Market situation: The prices and profits of various chemical products fluctuated, and the operation rates of EPS, ABS, and PS also showed different trends [1]