燃料油早报-20250526

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated. The 380 near - end ran strongly, the monthly spread strengthened again, and the basis fluctuated. The low - sulfur crack spread fluctuated, the near - end of the monthly spread declined, and the basis fluctuated. Singapore's on - land inventory increased significantly, ARA ports had a slight inventory build - up, and the US residual oil inventory decreased. Recently, the low - sulfur valuation was realized, and there is room for repair in the crack spread and monthly spread after the supply recovers. The high - sulfur crack spread ran strongly, with profits higher than the historical average. Affected by consumption tax deductions and tariff adjustments in China this year, the refinery feedstock demand for fuel oil has dropped significantly. In the bunker fuel sector, the global high - sulfur bunker fuel from January to March increased by 2% year - on - year, Singapore remained basically flat, and the total bunker fuel was weaker year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs on global trade activities. Recently, Saudi Arabia's net imports have rebounded, and Egypt's purchases continue. The near - end of high - sulfur is strong, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of a medium - to - long - term decline in the high - sulfur crack spread [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/05/19 | 2025/05/20 | 2025/05/21 | 2025/05/22 | 2025/05/23 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 407.04 | 407.23 | 409.58 | 403.67 | 405.64 | 1.97 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 446.85 | 446.09 | 447.99 | 444.44 | 449.27 | 4.83 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 0.62 | - 0.27 | - 0.02 | - 0.04 | - 0.44 | - 0.40 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 593.82 | 588.04 | 589.31 | 583.79 | 588.32 | 4.53 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 146.97 | - 141.95 | - 141.32 | - 139.35 | - 139.05 | 0.30 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 16.37 | 15.90 | 16.50 | 16.30 | 16.50 | 0.20 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 39.81 | 38.86 | 38.41 | 40.77 | 43.63 | 2.86 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/05/19 | 2025/05/20 | 2025/05/21 | 2025/05/22 | 2025/05/23 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 428.78 | 431.93 | 441.46 | 428.49 | 426.54 | - 1.95 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 436.10 | 438.43 | 447.56 | 434.99 | 432.91 | - 2.08 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 487.21 | 485.73 | 489.98 | 482.50 | 479.50 | - 3.00 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 79.83 | 79.88 | 80.60 | 78.60 | 78.23 | - 0.37 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | 3.27 | 3.21 | 3.91 | 3.69 | 3.74 | 0.05 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 103.53 | - 105.38 | - 106.46 | - 99.14 | - 99.40 | - 0.26 | [1][9] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/05/19 | 2025/05/20 | 2025/05/21 | 2025/05/22 | 2025/05/23 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 431.06 | 434.71 | 443.64 | 429.70 | 428.80 | - 0.90 | | FOB VLSFO | 499.38 | 498.93 | 502.27 | 493.36 | 490.04 | - 3.32 | | 380 Basis | - 0.45 | - 0.25 | 0.30 | - 0.18 | 1.50 | 1.68 | | High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 9.7 | 9.6 | 11.1 | 10.2 | 9.4 | - 0.8 | | Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 14.5 | 12.2 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 14.3 | 0.8 | [2] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/05/19 | 2025/05/20 | 2025/05/21 | 2025/05/22 | 2025/05/23 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2705 | 2722 | 2748 | 2695 | 2692 | - 3 | | FU 05 | 2649 | 2662 | 2669 | 2634 | 2638 | 4 | | FU 09 | 2847 | 2874 | 2910 | 2841 | 2833 | - 8 | | FU 01 - 05 | 56 | 60 | 79 | 61 | 54 | - 7 | | FU 05 - 09 | - 198 | - 212 | - 241 | - 207 | - 195 | 12 | | FU 09 - 01 | 142 | 152 | 162 | 146 | 141 | - 5 | [2] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/05/19 | 2025/05/20 | 2025/05/21 | 2025/05/22 | 2025/05/23 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3378 | 3390 | 3393 | 3350 | 3358 | 8 | | LU 05 | 3313 | 3314 | 3307 | 3330 | 3291 | - 39 | | LU 09 | 3437 | 3445 | 3456 | 3412 | 3405 | - 7 | | LU 01 - 05 | 65 | 76 | 86 | 20 | 67 | 47 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 124 | - 131 | - 149 | - 82 | - 114 | - 32 | | LU 09 - 01 | 59 | 55 | 63 | 62 | 47 | - 15 | [3]