原油成品油早报-20250526

Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: May 26, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - This week, oil prices fluctuated. OPEC+ is discussing a continued large - scale increase in supply in July, but no final decision has been made. The fifth round of US - Iran negotiations ended without a conclusive result. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories decreased this week, while US commercial crude oil inventories increased seasonally with an absolute inventory lower than the historical average, and gasoline and diesel inventories increased slightly. In the short term, refinery profits are in high - level fluctuations, refinery operations are rising as expected, leading indicators of US production are falling, the US - Iran negotiation is at a stalemate, and the US continues to impose sanctions on Iran and Russia, so oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. In the medium - to - long term, crude oil is in a bearish pattern due to OPEC's supply policy and potential supply - demand surplus [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - Price Changes from May 19 - 23, 2025: WTI crude oil price increased by $0.33, BRENT by $0.34, and DUBAI by $0.01. SC decreased by $0.90, and OMAN increased by $0.12. Japanese naphtha - BRT decreased by $5.50, and Singapore 380CST fuel oil's premium to BRT increased by $1.68 [3] 3.2 Daily News - EU Sanctions on Russia: The EU is considering removing about 20 banks from SWIFT, lowering the G7 oil price cap on Russia to about $45 from the current $60, and implementing new restrictions on Russia's "shadow fleet" vessels. Germany's foreign minister said the EU is discussing a new round of sanctions on Russia, especially in the energy sector [3][4] - HSBC's Forecast: HSBC expects OPEC+ to announce another accelerated increase in supply in July, similar to May and June, and to suspend production increases in Q1 2026 [4] 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - US EIA Data (Week ending May 16): US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 843,000 barrels to 400.5 million barrels (0.21% increase). Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding SPR) increased by 1.328 million barrels to 443 million barrels (0.3% increase). Domestic crude oil production increased by 500,000 barrels per day to 13.392 million barrels per day. Crude oil exports increased by 1.38 million barrels per day to 3.507 million barrels per day. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 19.625 million barrels per day, a 2.84% decrease from the same period last year [4] - China's Situation: This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China increased, with major refineries seeing an increase in both gasoline and diesel production and local refineries seeing a decrease. The sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for both gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, while that of local refineries decreased [5]